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TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

16-19  |  Road

4
FINAL
Wed, May 7 • 9:38 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

14-20  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Brendon Little
STARTING PITCHER

Brendon Little

#54 | Relief Pitcher
@
Reid Detmers
STARTING PITCHER

Reid Detmers

#48 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Brendon Little None-None 2.20 -- 0.2 2
Reid Detmers None-None 10.05 -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
2.20 Ldr ERA 10.05
-- WHIP --
0.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) --
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
55%
📊
ANGELS
45%
BLUE JAYS --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Toronto)
Blue JaysTOR (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blue Jays Cover

54.6%

Angels Cover

45.4%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TOR -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

TOR By 1-2 runs

19.1%

TOR By 3-4 runs

14.9%

LAA By 1-2 runs

17.6%

LAA By 3-4 runs

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
2.8
TORONTO
2.34
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
3
TORONTO
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Blue Jays Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Angels Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Blue Jays (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.5
D
Sim Angels (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 5.1
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 10, 2026 LAA @ TOR 6 - 1
May 9, 2026 LAA @ TOR 1 - 14
May 8, 2026 LAA @ TOR 0 - 2
Apr 22, 2026 TOR @ LAA 3 - 7
Apr 21, 2026 TOR @ LAA 4 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto TOR
vs
Los Angeles LAA
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.04
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.310
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.381 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.692 ▲
OPS
.679
152
Home Runs
▲ 154
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +46.3% more
Toronto: 4.0 vs Los Angeles: 2.1
Total Bases (L5) +8.0% more
Toronto: 13.6 vs Los Angeles: 12.5
Hits (L5) +8.0% more
Toronto: 8.1 vs Los Angeles: 7.4
Batting Avg (Season) +1.3%
Toronto: 24.7% vs Los Angeles: 23.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 2.8 4
LAA Score 2.3 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.4 / 8.1 9.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 1.2 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.2 / 8.1 8.0 / 14.0
Total Bases 12.5 / 13.6 16.0 / 14.0
Walks 2.1 / 4.0 2.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR Advantage
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
LAA Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
TOR
LAA
TOR
ML
59% 96-66
46% 74-87
55% 89-73
50% 80-80
ATS
60% 97-65
56% 90-71
51% 82-80
49% 79-81
TTL
53% 83-74-5
51% 80-76-5
52% 82-75-5
45% 70-85-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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