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DETROIT

TIGERSDET

23-13  |  Road

11
FINAL
Thu, May 8 • 3:15 PM ET
Coors Field
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

6-29  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Javier Baez
STARTING PITCHER

Javier Baez

#28 | Shortstop
@
Juan Mejia
STARTING PITCHER

Juan Mejia

#47 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Javier Baez None-None -- -- -- --
Juan Mejia None-None 0.00 -- 2.1 5
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 0.00
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 2.1
-- K (Strikeouts) 5
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
90%
📊
ROCKIES
10%
TIGERS --
ROCKIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 68%
Under 0 32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.4
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 points (Detroit)
TigersDET (-3.5) 0 RockiesCOL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

72.7%

Rockies Cover

27.3%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around DET -2.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

DET By 1-2 runs

19.2%

DET By 3-4 runs

19.0%

COL By 1-2 runs

12.4%

COL By 3-4 runs

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
5.64
DETROIT
3.23
COLORADO
Simulated Score
3
DETROIT
5
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tigers Win
90% Win Prob
A
Sim Rockies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.4
B
Sim Rockies (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.9
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 COL @ DET 1 - 8
Sep 12, 2026 COL @ DET 7 - 11
Sep 11, 2026 COL @ DET 2 - 6
May 8, 2025 DET @ COL 11 - 1
May 7, 2025 DET @ COL 8 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit DET
vs
Colorado COL
162
Games Played
162
4.46
Runs / Game
▲ 4.64
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲ .254
.320
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .322
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .417
.720
OPS
▲ .739
181 ▲
Home Runs
180
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +51.9% more
Detroit: 1.8 vs Colorado: 0.9
Strikeouts (L5) +24.6% more
Detroit: 9.6 vs Colorado: 7.2
Total Bases (L5) +21.4% more
Detroit: 18.4 vs Colorado: 14.5
Hits (L5) +20.4% more
Detroit: 11.2 vs Colorado: 8.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 5.6 11
COL Score 3.2 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.3 3.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.9 / 11.2 4.0 / 14.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.8 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.2 / 9.6 10.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 14.5 / 18.4 7.0 / 17.0
Walks 3.5 / 3.4 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET Advantage
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
DET
COL
DET
ML
60% 97-64
54% 86-73
55% 88-73
54% 87-73
ATS
60% 97-64
64% 101-58
52% 83-78
57% 91-69
TTL
60% 93-62-6
46% 69-81-9
50% 77-78-6
46% 69-81-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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