TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
18-20 | Road
1
DETROIT
TIGERSDET
25-13 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Joc Pederson
#3 | Designated Hitter@
STARTING PITCHER
Javier Baez
#28 | Shortstop| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joc Pederson | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Javier Baez | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
32%
TIGERS
68%
RANGERS
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
76%
Under 0
24%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Texas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TEX -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)
TEX By 1-2 runs
18.9%
TEX By 3-4 runs
14.5%
DET By 1-2 runs
17.9%
DET By 3-4 runs
12.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
4.8
TEXAS
Detroit
4.49
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Texas
3
TEXAS
Detroit
5
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rangers
Loss
32% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rangers (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.3
D
Sim
Tigers (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.3
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 5, 2026
DET @ TEX
6 - 3
Jul 4, 2026
DET @ TEX
3 - 0
Jul 2, 2026
DET @ TEX
4 - 10
May 3, 2026
TEX @ DET
1 - 7
May 2, 2026
TEX @ DET
1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas
TEX
vs
Detroit
DET
162
Games Played
162
4.15
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.242
▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.320
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.713
OPS
▲
.720
183
▲
Home Runs
181
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+12.0% more
Texas: 0.3
vs
Detroit: 0.2
Home Runs (L5)
+70.0% more
Detroit: 1.2
vs
Texas: 0.5
Strikeouts (L5)
+69.8% more
Detroit: 10.1
vs
Texas: 5.9
Total Bases (L5)
+69.4% more
Detroit: 18.0
vs
Texas: 10.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
4.8
1
DET Score
4.5
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
12.1 / 8.1
3.0 / 3.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.1 / 5.9
13.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
18.0 / 10.6
4.0 / 3.0
Walks
2.6 / 2.6
0.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
TEX
DET
TEX
ML
54%
86-73
53%
86-76
54%
87-73
57%
91-70
ATS
64%
101-58
57%
92-70
57%
91-69
61%
98-63
TTL
46%
69-81-9
53%
78-70-14
46%
69-81-10
55%
81-66-14
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