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PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

22-15  |  Road

0
FINAL
Fri, May 9 • 7:10 PM ET
Progressive Field
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

22-15  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Orion Kerkering
STARTING PITCHER

Orion Kerkering

#50 | Relief Pitcher
@
Matt Festa
STARTING PITCHER

Matt Festa

#52 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Orion Kerkering None-None 4.80 -- 1.0 1
Matt Festa None-None 5.79 -- 2.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
4.80 Ldr ERA 5.79
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
50%
📊
GUARDIANS
50%
PHILLIES --
GUARDIANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.6
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.6 points (Philadelphia)
PhilliesPHI (-3.5) 0 GuardiansCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Phillies Cover

74.1%

Guardians Cover

25.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI -2.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

PHI By 1-2 runs

19.0%

PHI By 3-4 runs

19.2%

CLE By 1-2 runs

11.9%

CLE By 3-4 runs

6.4%

AI Model Projected Score
6.16
PHILADELPHIA
3.58
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
3
PHILADELPHIA
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Phillies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Guardians Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Phillies (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.6
D
Sim Guardians (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.7
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 24, 2026 CLE @ PHI 3 - 1
May 23, 2026 CLE @ PHI 0 - 3
May 22, 2026 CLE @ PHI 1 - 0
May 11, 2025 PHI @ CLE 3 - 0
May 10, 2025 PHI @ CLE 7 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia PHI
vs
Cleveland CLE
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.19
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .316
.438 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.724 ▲
OPS
.696
3
Home Runs
▲ 162
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +57.8% more
Philadelphia: 1.6 vs Cleveland: 0.7
Strikeouts (L5) +35.8% more
Philadelphia: 11.0 vs Cleveland: 7.0
Total Bases (L5) +23.2% more
Philadelphia: 17.3 vs Cleveland: 13.3
Slugging Pct (Season) +5.8%
Philadelphia: 43.8% vs Cleveland: 38.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 6.2 0
CLE Score 3.6 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.4 / 0.2 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.8 / 10.5 9.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 1.6 3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.0 / 11.0 10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 13.3 / 17.3 20.0 / 6.0
Walks 5.0 / 2.6 6.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI Advantage
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
CLE
86-79-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
CLE Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
PHI
CLE
PHI
ML
54% 87-74
59% 97-67
49% 80-82
49% 80-84
ATS
58% 93-68
65% 107-57
59% 95-67
51% 83-81
TTL
55% 88-71-2
57% 88-67-9
43% 69-90-2
51% 78-76-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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