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MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

14-22  |  Road

2
FINAL
Fri, May 9 • 7:40 PM ET
Rate Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

10-28  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Cade Gibson
STARTING PITCHER

Cade Gibson

#58 | Relief Pitcher
@
Miguel Vargas
STARTING PITCHER

Miguel Vargas

#20 | Third Base
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Cade Gibson None-None 2.08 -- 1.0 1
Miguel Vargas None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
2.08 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
1 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
64%
📊
WHITE SOX
36%
MARLINS --
WHITE SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 30%
Under 0 70%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Miami)
MarlinsMIA (-3.5) 0 White SoxCHW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Marlins Cover

53.5%

White Sox Cover

46.5%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIA -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

MIA By 1-2 runs

19.0%

MIA By 3-4 runs

14.6%

CHW By 1-2 runs

17.8%

CHW By 3-4 runs

12.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.69
MIAMI
3.34
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
3
MIAMI
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Marlins Loss
64% Win Prob
C
Sim White Sox Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Marlins (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.4
B
Sim White Sox (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 1, 2026 CHW @ MIA 0 - 10
Mar 31, 2026 CHW @ MIA 2 - 9
Mar 30, 2026 CHW @ MIA 9 - 4
May 11, 2025 MIA @ CHW 2 - 4
May 10, 2025 MIA @ CHW 3 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami MIA
vs
Chicago CHW
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.41
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.249
Avg (AVG)
▲ .324
.326
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .415
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .412
.727
OPS
▲ .826
168 ▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +99.4% more
Miami: 168.0 vs Chicago: 1.0
Home Runs (L5) +58.0% more
Miami: 0.7 vs Chicago: 0.1
Strikeouts (L5) +52.4% more
Miami: 9.4 vs Chicago: 4.5
Walks (L5) +50.8% more
Miami: 4.4 vs Chicago: 2.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 3.7 2
CHW Score 3.3 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.3 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.9 / 7.5 6.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.1 / 0.7 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 4.5 / 9.4 5.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 8.6 / 10.9 11.0 / 12.0
Walks 2.2 / 4.4 5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
CHW Advantage
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
MIA
CHW
MIA
ML
49% 81-86
48% 78-84
56% 94-73
55% 88-72
ATS
59% 99-68
56% 91-71
56% 93-74
54% 86-74
TTL
58% 96-69-2
56% 88-69-5
51% 84-81-2
53% 82-73-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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