MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
15-23 | Road
2
CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
11-29 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Phillips
#30 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Sean Burke
#59 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Phillips | None-None | 5.24 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Sean Burke | None-None | 4.15 | -- | 4.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.24
ERA
Ldr 4.15
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 4.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
63%
WHITE SOX
37%
MARLINS
--
WHITE SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
41%
Under 0
59%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHW -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)
MIA By 1-2 runs
17.0%
MIA By 3-4 runs
11.5%
CHW By 1-2 runs
19.3%
CHW By 3-4 runs
15.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
3.32
MIAMI
Chicago
4.01
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Miami
2
MIAMI
Chicago
4
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
White Sox
Win
37% Win Prob
D
Sim
White Sox
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
White Sox (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.7
C
Sim
White Sox (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 1, 2026
CHW @ MIA
0 - 10
Mar 31, 2026
CHW @ MIA
2 - 9
Mar 30, 2026
CHW @ MIA
9 - 4
May 11, 2025
MIA @ CHW
2 - 4
May 10, 2025
MIA @ CHW
3 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Chicago
CHW
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.41
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.249
Avg (AVG)
▲
.324
.326
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.415
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.412
.727
OPS
▲
.826
168
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+36.1% more
Chicago: 6.0
vs
Miami: 4.4
OPS (Season)
+9.9%
Chicago: 82.6%
vs
Miami: 72.7%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+8.9%
Chicago: 41.5%
vs
Miami: 32.6%
Batting Avg (Season)
+7.5%
Chicago: 32.4%
vs
Miami: 24.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
3.3
2
CHW Score
4.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.4
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.7 / 7.2
7.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 0.9
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.4 / 8.0
3.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
8.9 / 11.8
11.0 / 8.0
Walks
3.1 / 3.5
6.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
MIA
CHW
MIA
ML
49%
81-86
48%
78-84
56%
94-73
55%
88-72
ATS
59%
99-68
56%
91-71
56%
93-74
54%
86-74
TTL
58%
96-69-2
56%
88-69-5
51%
84-81-2
53%
82-73-5
Contextual Game News
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