PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
23-16 | Road
3
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
23-16 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jose Alvarado
#46 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Matt Festa
#52 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Alvarado | None-None | 2.84 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Matt Festa | None-None | 5.40 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.84 Ldr
ERA
5.40
--
WHIP
--
1.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
50%
GUARDIANS
50%
PHILLIES
--
GUARDIANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.1
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI -2.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.5%
PHI By 3-4 runs
18.6%
CLE By 1-2 runs
13.3%
CLE By 3-4 runs
7.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
5.83
PHILADELPHIA
Cleveland
3.74
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Cleveland
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Phillies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Guardians
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Phillies (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.1
D
Sim
Guardians (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.6
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 24, 2026
CLE @ PHI
3 - 1
May 23, 2026
CLE @ PHI
0 - 3
May 22, 2026
CLE @ PHI
1 - 0
May 11, 2025
PHI @ CLE
3 - 0
May 10, 2025
PHI @ CLE
7 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Cleveland
CLE
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.19
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.316
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.724
▲
OPS
.696
3
Home Runs
▲
162
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+25.9% more
Philadelphia: 10.4
vs
Cleveland: 7.7
Total Bases (L5)
+21.7% more
Philadelphia: 15.4
vs
Cleveland: 12.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+11.2% more
Philadelphia: 8.7
vs
Cleveland: 7.7
Slugging Pct (Season)
+5.8%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Cleveland: 38.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
5.8
3
CLE Score
3.7
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.7 / 10.4
3.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.1
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.7 / 8.7
13.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
12.0 / 15.4
4.0 / 13.0
Walks
3.9 / 2.6
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CLE
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
PHI
CLE
PHI
ML
54%
87-74
59%
97-67
49%
80-82
49%
80-84
ATS
58%
93-68
65%
107-57
59%
95-67
51%
83-81
TTL
55%
88-71-2
57%
88-67-9
43%
69-90-2
51%
78-76-9
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