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BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

22-20  |  Road

2
FINAL
Mon, May 12 • 6:40 PM ET
Comerica Park
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

TIGERSDET

26-15  |  Home

14
Probable Pitchers
Ceddanne Rafaela
STARTING PITCHER

Ceddanne Rafaela

#3 | Center Field
@
Javier Baez
STARTING PITCHER

Javier Baez

#28 | Shortstop
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Ceddanne Rafaela None-None -- -- -- --
Javier Baez None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA --
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
39%
📊
TIGERS
61%
RED SOX --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Boston)
Red SoxBOS (-3.5) 0 TigersDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

58.4%

Tigers Cover

41.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BOS -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

BOS By 1-2 runs

19.5%

BOS By 3-4 runs

15.9%

DET By 1-2 runs

16.7%

DET By 3-4 runs

11.1%

AI Model Projected Score
5.95
BOSTON
5.1
DETROIT
Simulated Score
4
BOSTON
6
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Red Sox Loss
39% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Red Sox (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.9
C
Sim Tigers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 11.1
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 6, 2026 BOS @ DET 4 - 0
May 5, 2026 BOS @ DET 10 - 3
May 4, 2026 BOS @ DET 5 - 4
Apr 20, 2026 DET @ BOS 6 - 8
Apr 19, 2026 DET @ BOS 6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
Detroit DET
2
Games Played
▲ 162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.46
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .241
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .320
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .400
.409
OPS
▲ .720
2
Home Runs
▲ 181
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +68.9% more
Boston: 1.2 vs Detroit: 0.4
Home Runs (L5) +46.7% more
Boston: 1.5 vs Detroit: 0.8
Total Bases (L5) +30.3% more
Boston: 15.7 vs Detroit: 10.9
Hits (L5) +25.7% more
Boston: 9.3 vs Detroit: 6.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 6.0 2
DET Score 5.1 14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 1.2 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 6.9 / 9.3 18.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.5 2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.6 / 8.3 9.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 10.9 / 15.7 26.0 / 12.0
Walks 2.8 / 2.2 5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
BOS
DET
BOS
ML
54% 86-73
50% 80-80
54% 87-73
47% 76-87
ATS
64% 101-58
58% 93-67
57% 91-69
48% 79-84
TTL
46% 69-81-9
46% 72-83-5
46% 69-81-10
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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