MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
15-24 | Road
2
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
23-18 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Gibson
#58 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Colin Rea
#53 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Gibson | None-None | 1.23 | -- | 3.0 | 1 |
| Colin Rea | None-None | 2.48 | -- | 6.2 | 4 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.23 Ldr
ERA
2.48
--
WHIP
--
3.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.2
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
33%
CUBS
67%
MARLINS
--
CUBS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
MIA By 1-2 runs
15.8%
MIA By 3-4 runs
10.1%
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CHC By 3-4 runs
16.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
3.83
MIAMI
Chicago
5.01
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Miami
3
MIAMI
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cubs
Win
67% Win Prob
C
Sim
Cubs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cubs (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.2
D
Sim
Cubs (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.8
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
MIA @ CHC
1 - 2
Sep 23, 2026
MIA @ CHC
3 - 2
Sep 22, 2026
MIA @ CHC
8 - 2
Sep 6, 2026
CHC @ MIA
3 - 10
Sep 5, 2026
CHC @ MIA
6 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Chicago
CHC
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.41
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.727
▲
OPS
.374
168
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+59.0% more
Chicago: 1.2
vs
Miami: 0.6
Errors (L5)
+38.0% more
Chicago: 0.6
vs
Miami: 0.2
Home Runs (Season)
+100.0% more
Miami: 168.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+88.7% more
Miami: 4.4
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
3.8
2
CHC Score
5.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.8 / 7.1
8.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 0.6
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.4 / 9.3
8.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
10.4 / 10.6
18.0 / 10.0
Walks
1.7 / 3.3
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
MIA
CHC
MIA
ML
58%
93-68
48%
78-84
51%
82-79
55%
88-72
ATS
61%
97-63-1
56%
91-71
47%
75-85-1
54%
86-74
TTL
52%
81-74-6
56%
88-69-5
46%
72-83-6
53%
82-73-5
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