Home / MLB Projections MLB / Red Sox @ Tigers BOS @ DET

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

22-21  |  Road

9
FINAL
Tue, May 13 • 6:40 PM ET
Comerica Park
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

TIGERSDET

27-15  |  Home

10
Probable Pitchers
Greg Weissert
STARTING PITCHER

Greg Weissert

#57 | Relief Pitcher
@
Brenan Hanifee
STARTING PITCHER

Brenan Hanifee

#75 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Greg Weissert None-None 3.44 -- 1.0 1
Brenan Hanifee None-None 1.71 -- 1.1 1
None-None W-L None-None
3.44 ERA Ldr 1.71
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.1
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
37%
📊
TIGERS
63%
RED SOX --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (Detroit)
Red SoxBOS (-3.5) 0 TigersDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

32.8%

Tigers Cover

67.2%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

BOS By 1-2 runs

14.2%

BOS By 3-4 runs

8.4%

DET By 1-2 runs

19.7%

DET By 3-4 runs

18.0%

AI Model Projected Score
4.91
BOSTON
6.69
DETROIT
Simulated Score
3
BOSTON
5
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Win
63% Win Prob
C
Sim Tigers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.8
D
Sim Tigers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 11.6
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 6, 2026 BOS @ DET 4 - 0
May 5, 2026 BOS @ DET 10 - 3
May 4, 2026 BOS @ DET 5 - 4
Apr 20, 2026 DET @ BOS 6 - 8
Apr 19, 2026 DET @ BOS 6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
Detroit DET
2
Games Played
▲ 162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.46
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .241
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .320
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .400
.409
OPS
▲ .720
2
Home Runs
▲ 181
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +8950.0% more
Detroit: 181.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season) +346.0% more
Detroit: 4.5 vs Boston: 1.0
Walks (L5) +41.0% more
Detroit: 3.5 vs Boston: 2.5
Strikeouts (L5) +36.9% more
Detroit: 9.4 vs Boston: 6.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 4.9 9
DET Score 6.7 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 1.5 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 10.6 / 8.2 11.0 / 14.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 1.7 3.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 9.4 / 6.9 15.0 / 13.0
Total Bases 15.9 / 14.4 21.0 / 26.0
Walks 3.5 / 2.5 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
BOS
DET
BOS
ML
54% 86-73
50% 80-80
54% 87-73
47% 76-87
ATS
64% 101-58
58% 93-67
57% 91-69
48% 79-84
TTL
46% 69-81-9
46% 72-83-5
46% 69-81-10
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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