MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
15-25 | Road
4
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
24-18 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Calvin Faucher
#53 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Caleb Thielbar
#24 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Faucher | None-None | 2.57 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Caleb Thielbar | None-None | 3.14 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.57 Ldr
ERA
3.14
--
WHIP
--
1.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
31%
CUBS
69%
MARLINS
--
CUBS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
53%
Under 0
47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
MIA By 1-2 runs
15.6%
MIA By 3-4 runs
9.9%
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CHC By 3-4 runs
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
3.43
MIAMI
Chicago
4.69
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Miami
4
MIAMI
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cubs
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Sim
Cubs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cubs (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.3
D
Sim
Cubs (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
MIA @ CHC
1 - 2
Sep 23, 2026
MIA @ CHC
3 - 2
Sep 22, 2026
MIA @ CHC
8 - 2
Sep 6, 2026
CHC @ MIA
3 - 10
Sep 5, 2026
CHC @ MIA
6 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Chicago
CHC
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.41
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.727
▲
OPS
.374
168
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+73.0% more
Chicago: 1.4
vs
Miami: 0.7
Errors (L5)
+25.0% more
Chicago: 0.4
vs
Miami: 0.2
Total Bases (L5)
+24.7% more
Chicago: 12.9
vs
Miami: 10.4
Strikeouts (L5)
+18.8% more
Chicago: 9.0
vs
Miami: 7.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
3.4
4
CHC Score
4.7
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.2
1.0 / 2.0
Hits
6.5 / 7.1
6.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 0.7
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.0 / 7.5
9.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
12.9 / 10.4
10.0 / 17.0
Walks
2.2 / 3.2
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
MIA
CHC
MIA
ML
58%
93-68
48%
78-84
51%
82-79
55%
88-72
ATS
61%
97-63-1
56%
91-71
47%
75-85-1
54%
86-74
TTL
52%
81-74-6
56%
88-69-5
46%
72-83-6
53%
82-73-5
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