Home / MLB Projections MLB / Red Sox @ Tigers BOS @ DET

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

22-22  |  Road

5
FINAL
Wed, May 14 • 6:40 PM ET
Comerica Park
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

TIGERSDET

28-15  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Aroldis Chapman
STARTING PITCHER

Aroldis Chapman

#44 | Relief Pitcher
@
Tyler Holton
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Holton

#87 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Aroldis Chapman None-None 2.25 -- 0.2 1
Tyler Holton None-None 3.32 -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
2.25 Ldr ERA 3.32
-- WHIP --
0.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) --
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
35%
📊
TIGERS
65%
RED SOX --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 75%
Under 0 25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Detroit)
Red SoxBOS (-3.5) 0 TigersDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

36.0%

Tigers Cover

64.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

BOS By 1-2 runs

15.2%

BOS By 3-4 runs

9.4%

DET By 1-2 runs

19.7%

DET By 3-4 runs

17.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5.37
BOSTON
6.8
DETROIT
Simulated Score
3
BOSTON
5
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Win
65% Win Prob
C
Sim Tigers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
C
Sim Tigers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 12.2
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 6, 2026 BOS @ DET 4 - 0
May 5, 2026 BOS @ DET 10 - 3
May 4, 2026 BOS @ DET 5 - 4
Apr 20, 2026 DET @ BOS 6 - 8
Apr 19, 2026 DET @ BOS 6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
Detroit DET
2
Games Played
▲ 162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.46
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .241
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .320
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .400
.409
OPS
▲ .720
2
Home Runs
▲ 181
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +8950.0% more
Detroit: 181.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season) +346.0% more
Detroit: 4.5 vs Boston: 1.0
OPS (Season) +31.1%
Detroit: 72.0% vs Boston: 40.9%
Strikeouts (L5) +26.5% more
Detroit: 11.3 vs Boston: 8.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 5.4 5
DET Score 6.8 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 1.3 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 10.7 / 10.1 10.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 1.8 / 2.1 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 11.3 / 8.9 14.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 17.6 / 18.3 16.0 / 14.0
Walks 3.0 / 3.0 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
BOS
DET
BOS
ML
54% 86-73
50% 80-80
54% 87-73
47% 76-87
ATS
64% 101-58
58% 93-67
57% 91-69
48% 79-84
TTL
46% 69-81-9
46% 72-83-5
46% 69-81-10
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …
newsweek 17 hours, 41 minutes ago
LSU's Defense Dominates Early, But Real Test Awaits
si 1 day ago
Red Sox Offseason: Roman Anthony Avoids Surgery, Power Bat Searc…
yahoo 2 days, 5 hours ago
Dodgers Predicted to Re-Sign $32M Ace Tarik Skubal, Keeping Rota…
sportingnews 3 days, 6 hours ago
Tarik Skubal Set for First Home Playoff Start as Dodgers Host Br…
yourvalley_net 5 days, 12 hours ago