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MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

15-26  |  Road

3
FINAL
Wed, May 14 • 7:40 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

25-18  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Calvin Faucher
STARTING PITCHER

Calvin Faucher

#53 | Relief Pitcher
@
Miguel Amaya
STARTING PITCHER

Miguel Amaya

#9 | Catcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Calvin Faucher None-None 2.40 -- 1.0 2
Miguel Amaya None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
2.40 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
2 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
29%
📊
CUBS
71%
MARLINS --
CUBS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (Chicago)
MarlinsMIA (-3.5) 0 CubsCHC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Marlins Cover

32.4%

Cubs Cover

67.6%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

MIA By 1-2 runs

14.1%

MIA By 3-4 runs

8.3%

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.7%

CHC By 3-4 runs

18.1%

AI Model Projected Score
3.07
MIAMI
4.9
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
3
MIAMI
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cubs Loss
71% Win Prob
B
Sim Cubs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cubs (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.8
D
Sim Cubs (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 MIA @ CHC 1 - 2
Sep 23, 2026 MIA @ CHC 3 - 2
Sep 22, 2026 MIA @ CHC 8 - 2
Sep 6, 2026 CHC @ MIA 3 - 10
Sep 5, 2026 CHC @ MIA 6 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami MIA
vs
Chicago CHC
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.41 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.249 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.727 ▲
OPS
.374
168 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +34.1% more
Chicago: 9.0 vs Miami: 6.7
Home Runs (L5) +13.2% more
Chicago: 1.3 vs Miami: 1.1
Home Runs (Season) +100.0% more
Miami: 168.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +88.7% more
Miami: 4.4 vs Chicago: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 3.1 3
CHC Score 4.9 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.3 / 7.7 5.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 1.1 1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 9.0 / 6.7 11.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 12.0 / 12.6 9.0 / 18.0
Walks 2.4 / 3.2 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
MIA
CHC
MIA
ML
58% 93-68
48% 78-84
51% 82-79
55% 88-72
ATS
61% 97-63-1
56% 91-71
47% 75-85-1
54% 86-74
TTL
52% 81-74-6
56% 88-69-5
46% 72-83-6
53% 82-73-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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