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CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

14-30  |  Road

3
FINAL
Fri, May 16 • 2:20 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

25-19  |  Home

13
Probable Pitchers
Edgar Quero
STARTING PITCHER

Edgar Quero

#26 | Catcher
@
Caleb Thielbar
STARTING PITCHER

Caleb Thielbar

#24 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Edgar Quero None-None -- -- -- --
Caleb Thielbar None-None 2.93 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 2.93
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
26%
📊
CUBS
74%
WHITE SOX --
CUBS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 95%
Under 0 5%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Chicago)
White SoxCHW (-3.5) 0 CubsCHC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

White Sox Cover

41.3%

Cubs Cover

58.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

CHW By 1-2 runs

16.6%

CHW By 3-4 runs

11.0%

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.5%

CHC By 3-4 runs

16.0%

AI Model Projected Score
3.63
CHICAGO
4.51
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
3
CHICAGO
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cubs Win
74% Win Prob
B
Sim Cubs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cubs (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.9
B
Sim Cubs (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.1
A
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 19, 2026 CHW @ CHC 3 - 0
Aug 18, 2026 CHW @ CHC 3 - 4
Aug 17, 2026 CHW @ CHC 5 - 7
May 17, 2026 CHC @ CHW 8 - 9
May 16, 2026 CHC @ CHW 3 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHW
vs
Chicago CHC
1
Games Played
▲ 2
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.324 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.415 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.412 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.826 ▲
OPS
.374
1 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +52.2% more
Chicago: 9.7 vs Chicago: 6.3
Home Runs (L5) +38.0% more
Chicago: 1.2 vs Chicago: 0.8
Runs per Game (Season) +91.7% more
Chicago: 6.0 vs Chicago: 0.5
OPS (Season) +45.2%
Chicago: 82.6% vs Chicago: 37.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHW Score 3.6 3
CHC Score 4.5 13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.5 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 5.9 / 6.7 15.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 0.8 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.7 / 6.3 4.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 11.0 / 10.8 24.0 / 18.0
Walks 2.0 / 2.6 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
CHW
CHC
CHW
ML
58% 93-68
49% 81-86
51% 82-79
56% 94-73
ATS
61% 97-63-1
59% 99-68
47% 75-85-1
56% 93-74
TTL
52% 81-74-6
58% 96-69-2
46% 72-83-6
51% 84-81-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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