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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

18-27  |  Road

4
FINAL
Fri, May 16 • 7:05 PM ET
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
View Odds Details →

BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

15-27  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Nasim Nunez
STARTING PITCHER

Nasim Nunez

#26 | Second Base
@
Jackson Holliday
STARTING PITCHER

Jackson Holliday

#7 | Second Base
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Nasim Nunez None-None -- -- -- --
Jackson Holliday None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA --
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
55%
📊
ORIOLES
45%
NATIONALS --
ORIOLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 63%
Under 0 37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Washington)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 OriolesBAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

64.5%

Orioles Cover

35.5%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around WSH -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

WSH By 1-2 runs

19.7%

WSH By 3-4 runs

17.4%

BAL By 1-2 runs

15.0%

BAL By 3-4 runs

9.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.62
WASHINGTON
2.13
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
6
WASHINGTON
4
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Nationals Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Nationals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nationals (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim Nationals (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 5.8
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 28, 2026 WSH @ BAL 6 - 4
Jun 27, 2026 WSH @ BAL 4 - 3
Jun 26, 2026 WSH @ BAL 1 - 3
May 17, 2026 BAL @ WSH 7 - 3
May 16, 2026 BAL @ WSH 3 - 13
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
Baltimore BAL
162 ▲
Games Played
161
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.321 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.423 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.744 ▲
OPS
.711
210 ▲
Home Runs
199
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +46.0% more
Washington: 0.7 vs Baltimore: 0.3
Hits (L5) +13.9% more
Washington: 7.4 vs Baltimore: 6.4
Runs per Game (Season) +12.0% more
Washington: 5.1 vs Baltimore: 4.5
Total Bases (L5) +9.4% more
Washington: 11.4 vs Baltimore: 10.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 3.6 4
BAL Score 2.1 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.7 2.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.4 / 7.4 14.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 0.7 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.0 / 8.1 13.0 / 15.0
Total Bases 10.4 / 11.4 17.0 / 11.0
Walks 3.2 / 2.4 5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
BAL Advantage
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
BAL
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
WSH
BAL
WSH
ML
53% 83-73
57% 92-69
57% 90-69
54% 87-74
ATS
61% 95-60-1
58% 93-68
57% 90-68-1
57% 91-70
TTL
54% 81-70-5
50% 77-78-6
51% 78-75-6
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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