TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
20-23 | Road
4
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
16-26 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Chandler Simpson
#14 | Left Field@
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Phillips
#30 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chandler Simpson | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Tyler Phillips | None-None | 4.81 | -- | 2.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
4.81
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
2.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
59%
MARLINS
41%
RAYS
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TB -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
TB By 1-2 runs
19.7%
TB By 3-4 runs
18.0%
MIA By 1-2 runs
14.3%
MIA By 3-4 runs
8.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
4.56
TAMPA BAY
Miami
2.81
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Miami
4
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rays
Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Sim
Marlins
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rays (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.7
D
Sim
Marlins (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 7, 2026
TB @ MIA
1 - 4
Jun 6, 2026
TB @ MIA
3 - 4
Jun 5, 2026
TB @ MIA
6 - 0
May 17, 2026
MIA @ TB
3 - 6
May 16, 2026
MIA @ TB
10 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Miami
MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
4.41
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.249
.326
On-Base (OBP)
.326
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.728
▲
OPS
.727
169
▲
Home Runs
168
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+27.7% more
Tampa Bay: 9.9
vs
Miami: 7.2
Total Bases (L5)
+15.0% more
Tampa Bay: 16.9
vs
Miami: 14.4
Runs per Game (Season)
+2.9% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5
vs
Miami: 4.4
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.9%
Tampa Bay: 25.8%
vs
Miami: 24.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
4.6
4
MIA Score
2.8
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.5
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.2 / 9.9
13.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.8 / 1.9
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.5 / 6.2
9.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
14.4 / 16.9
16.0 / 8.0
Walks
2.8 / 2.5
0.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
TB
MIA
TB
ML
48%
78-84
58%
95-68
55%
88-72
58%
95-68
ATS
56%
91-71
60%
97-66
54%
86-74
55%
90-73
TTL
56%
88-69-5
47%
73-81-9
53%
82-73-5
51%
78-75-10
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