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CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

14-31  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, May 17 • 2:20 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

26-19  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Sean Burke
STARTING PITCHER

Sean Burke

#59 | Starting Pitcher
@
Matthew Boyd
STARTING PITCHER

Matthew Boyd

#16 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Sean Burke None-None 4.69 -- 4.2 4
Matthew Boyd None-None 2.98 -- 6.0 8
None-None W-L None-None
4.69 ERA Ldr 2.98
-- WHIP --
4.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.0
4 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 8
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
25%
📊
CUBS
75%
WHITE SOX --
CUBS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 74%
Under 0 26%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.1
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 points (Chicago)
White SoxCHW (-3.5) 0 CubsCHC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

White Sox Cover

29.7%

Cubs Cover

70.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -2.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

CHW By 1-2 runs

13.2%

CHW By 3-4 runs

7.5%

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.5%

CHC By 3-4 runs

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3.14
CHICAGO
5.27
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
4
CHICAGO
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cubs Win
75% Win Prob
B
Sim Cubs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cubs (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.1
D
Sim Cubs (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.4
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 19, 2026 CHW @ CHC 3 - 0
Aug 18, 2026 CHW @ CHC 3 - 4
Aug 17, 2026 CHW @ CHC 5 - 7
May 17, 2026 CHC @ CHW 8 - 9
May 16, 2026 CHC @ CHW 3 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHW
vs
Chicago CHC
1
Games Played
▲ 2
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.324 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.415 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.412 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.826 ▲
OPS
.374
1 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5) +15.9% more
Chicago: 15.3 vs Chicago: 13.2
Strikeouts (L5) +12.6% more
Chicago: 7.8 vs Chicago: 6.9
Hits (L5) +9.7% more
Chicago: 8.9 vs Chicago: 8.1
Runs per Game (Season) +91.7% more
Chicago: 6.0 vs Chicago: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHW Score 3.1 3
CHC Score 5.3 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 1.0 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.9 / 8.1 9.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 1.2 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 7.8 / 6.9 12.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 15.3 / 13.2 16.0 / 12.0
Walks 1.3 / 2.4 1.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
CHW
CHC
CHW
ML
58% 93-68
49% 81-86
51% 82-79
56% 94-73
ATS
61% 97-63-1
59% 99-68
47% 75-85-1
56% 93-74
TTL
52% 81-74-6
58% 96-69-2
46% 72-83-6
51% 84-81-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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