WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
19-27 | Road
10
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
15-28 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jake Irvin
#27 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Yennier Cano
#78 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Irvin | None-None | 3.88 | -- | 6.1 | 6 |
| Yennier Cano | None-None | 4.80 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.88 Ldr
ERA
4.80
--
WHIP
--
6.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
6 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
57%
ORIOLES
43%
NATIONALS
--
ORIOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
85%
Under 0
15%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around WSH -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
WSH By 1-2 runs
19.6%
WSH By 3-4 runs
16.2%
BAL By 1-2 runs
16.5%
BAL By 3-4 runs
10.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
3.44
WASHINGTON
Baltimore
2.5
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
Washington
6
WASHINGTON
Baltimore
3
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Nationals
Win
57% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nationals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nationals (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.9
D
Sim
Nationals (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.9
A
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 28, 2026
WSH @ BAL
6 - 4
Jun 27, 2026
WSH @ BAL
4 - 3
Jun 26, 2026
WSH @ BAL
1 - 3
May 17, 2026
BAL @ WSH
7 - 3
May 16, 2026
BAL @ WSH
3 - 13
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
Baltimore
BAL
162
▲
Games Played
161
5.07
▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.321
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.423
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.744
▲
OPS
.711
210
▲
Home Runs
199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+63.5% more
Washington: 1.2
vs
Baltimore: 0.4
Runs per Game (Season)
+12.0% more
Washington: 5.1
vs
Baltimore: 4.5
Home Runs (Season)
+5.2% more
Washington: 210.0
vs
Baltimore: 199.0
OPS (Season)
+3.3%
Washington: 74.4%
vs
Baltimore: 71.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
3.4
10
BAL Score
2.5
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.8
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
8.9 / 6.6
10.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 1.2
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.6 / 10.4
11.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
12.6 / 11.3
16.0 / 17.0
Walks
3.8 / 3.0
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
BAL
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
WSH
BAL
WSH
ML
53%
83-73
57%
92-69
57%
90-69
54%
87-74
ATS
61%
95-60-1
58%
93-68
57%
90-68-1
57%
91-70
TTL
54%
81-70-5
50%
77-78-6
51%
78-75-6
42%
65-90-6
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