TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
20-24 | Road
4
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
17-26 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Garrett Cleavinger
#60 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Gibson
#58 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Cleavinger | None-None | 2.12 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Cade Gibson | None-None | 0.87 | -- | 3.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.12
ERA
Ldr 0.87
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 3.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
56%
MARLINS
44%
RAYS
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
47%
Under 0
53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TB -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
TB By 1-2 runs
19.3%
TB By 3-4 runs
15.3%
MIA By 1-2 runs
17.2%
MIA By 3-4 runs
11.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
4.05
TAMPA BAY
Miami
3.43
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Miami
5
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rays
Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim
Marlins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rays (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.6
C
Sim
Marlins (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 7, 2026
TB @ MIA
1 - 4
Jun 6, 2026
TB @ MIA
3 - 4
Jun 5, 2026
TB @ MIA
6 - 0
May 17, 2026
MIA @ TB
3 - 6
May 16, 2026
MIA @ TB
10 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Miami
MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
4.41
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.249
.326
On-Base (OBP)
.326
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.728
▲
OPS
.727
169
▲
Home Runs
168
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+53.5% more
Tampa Bay: 4.0
vs
Miami: 1.9
Runs per Game (Season)
+2.9% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5
vs
Miami: 4.4
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.9%
Tampa Bay: 25.8%
vs
Miami: 24.9%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+0.2%
Tampa Bay: 40.2%
vs
Miami: 40.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
4.1
4
MIA Score
3.4
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.1 / 8.9
6.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.3
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.0 / 7.2
6.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
14.9 / 14.0
8.0 / 11.0
Walks
1.9 / 4.0
2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
TB
MIA
TB
ML
48%
78-84
58%
95-68
55%
88-72
58%
95-68
ATS
56%
91-71
60%
97-66
54%
86-74
55%
90-73
TTL
56%
88-69-5
47%
73-81-9
53%
82-73-5
51%
78-75-10
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