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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

20-27  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sun, May 18 • 1:35 PM ET
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
View Odds Details →

BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

15-29  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Dylan Crews
STARTING PITCHER

Dylan Crews

#3 | Right Field
@
Gunnar Henderson
STARTING PITCHER

Gunnar Henderson

#2 | Shortstop
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Dylan Crews None-None -- -- -- --
Gunnar Henderson None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA --
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
59%
📊
ORIOLES
41%
NATIONALS --
ORIOLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Washington)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 OriolesBAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

66.7%

Orioles Cover

33.3%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around WSH -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

WSH By 1-2 runs

19.7%

WSH By 3-4 runs

17.9%

BAL By 1-2 runs

14.3%

BAL By 3-4 runs

8.5%

AI Model Projected Score
4.11
WASHINGTON
2.38
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
3
WASHINGTON
6
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Nationals Win
59% Win Prob
D
Sim Orioles Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Nationals (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.7
C
Sim Orioles (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.5
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 28, 2026 WSH @ BAL 6 - 4
Jun 27, 2026 WSH @ BAL 4 - 3
Jun 26, 2026 WSH @ BAL 1 - 3
May 17, 2026 BAL @ WSH 7 - 3
May 16, 2026 BAL @ WSH 3 - 13
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
Baltimore BAL
162 ▲
Games Played
161
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.321 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.423 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.744 ▲
OPS
.711
210 ▲
Home Runs
199
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +53.3% more
Washington: 1.2 vs Baltimore: 0.6
Home Runs (L5) +15.0% more
Washington: 0.8 vs Baltimore: 0.6
Runs per Game (Season) +12.0% more
Washington: 5.1 vs Baltimore: 4.5
Home Runs (Season) +5.2% more
Washington: 210.0 vs Baltimore: 199.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 4.1 10
BAL Score 2.4 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 1.2 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.3 / 8.1 9.0 / 13.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 0.8 3.0 / 5.0
Strikeouts 10.1 / 9.3 10.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 13.7 / 13.2 20.0 / 31.0
Walks 3.6 / 2.3 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
BAL Advantage
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
BAL
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
WSH
BAL
WSH
ML
53% 83-73
57% 92-69
57% 90-69
54% 87-74
ATS
61% 95-60-1
58% 93-68
57% 90-68-1
57% 91-70
TTL
54% 81-70-5
50% 77-78-6
51% 78-75-6
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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