Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cubs @ Marlins CHC @ MIA

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

28-19  |  Road

7
FINAL
Mon, May 19 • 6:40 PM ET
loanDepot park
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

18-27  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Caleb Thielbar
STARTING PITCHER

Caleb Thielbar

#24 | Relief Pitcher
@
Javier Sanoja
STARTING PITCHER

Javier Sanoja

#8 | Third Base
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Caleb Thielbar None-None 2.70 -- 1.1 1
Javier Sanoja None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
2.70 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.1 IP (Innings Pitched) --
1 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
69%
📊
MARLINS
31%
CUBS --
MARLINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Chicago)
CubsCHC (-3.5) 0 MarlinsMIA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cubs Cover

60.3%

Marlins Cover

39.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHC -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CHC By 3-4 runs

16.4%

MIA By 1-2 runs

16.2%

MIA By 3-4 runs

10.5%

AI Model Projected Score
4.64
CHICAGO
3.6
MIAMI
Simulated Score
2
CHICAGO
5
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cubs Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Sim Marlins Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cubs (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Marlins (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.2
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 MIA @ CHC 1 - 2
Sep 23, 2026 MIA @ CHC 3 - 2
Sep 22, 2026 MIA @ CHC 8 - 2
Sep 6, 2026 CHC @ MIA 3 - 10
Sep 5, 2026 CHC @ MIA 6 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHC
vs
Miami MIA
2
Games Played
▲ 162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.41
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲ .249
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .400
.374
OPS
▲ .727
0
Home Runs
▲ 168
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +16800.0% more
Miami: 168.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +391.0% more
Miami: 4.4 vs Chicago: 0.5
Errors (L5) +51.0% more
Miami: 0.6 vs Chicago: 0.1
Home Runs (L5) +47.0% more
Miami: 1.2 vs Chicago: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHC Score 4.6 7
MIA Score 3.6 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.1 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.7 / 9.3 11.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 0.7 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.2 / 8.1 9.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 14.4 / 15.4 24.0 / 18.0
Walks 1.9 / 1.5 4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
MIA
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
MIA Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
CHC
MIA
CHC
ML
48% 78-84
58% 93-68
55% 88-72
51% 82-79
ATS
56% 91-71
61% 97-63-1
54% 86-74
47% 75-85-1
TTL
56% 88-69-5
52% 81-74-6
53% 82-73-5
46% 72-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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