NEW YORK
METSNYM
29-18 | Road
1
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
23-25 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kodai Senga
#34 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Aroldis Chapman
#44 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kodai Senga | None-None | 1.43 | -- | 6.0 | 5 |
| Aroldis Chapman | None-None | 2.00 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.43 Ldr
ERA
2.00
--
WHIP
--
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
5 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
METS
64%
RED SOX
36%
METS
--
RED SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
42%
Under 0
58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
NYM By 1-2 runs
18.1%
NYM By 3-4 runs
13.0%
BOS By 1-2 runs
18.7%
BOS By 3-4 runs
14.1%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
4.84
NEW YORK
Boston
5.03
BOSTON
Simulated Score
New York
4
NEW YORK
Boston
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox
Win
36% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Sox
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.2
B
Sim
Red Sox (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 12, 2026
BOS @ NYM
3 - 2
Jul 11, 2026
BOS @ NYM
4 - 0
Jul 10, 2026
BOS @ NYM
6 - 2
May 21, 2025
NYM @ BOS
5 - 1
May 20, 2025
NYM @ BOS
0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
Boston
BOS
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.31
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.239
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.310
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.395
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.705
▲
OPS
.409
204
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+116.0% more
Boston: 1.4
vs
New York: 0.3
Total Bases (L5)
+98.5% more
Boston: 15.4
vs
New York: 7.8
Hits (L5)
+66.7% more
Boston: 8.9
vs
New York: 5.3
Home Runs (Season)
+99.0% more
New York: 204.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
4.8
1
BOS Score
5.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 1.0
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.9 / 5.3
8.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.9 / 7.5
7.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
15.4 / 7.8
14.0 / 9.0
Walks
4.9 / 5.6
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
NYM
BOS
NYM
ML
50%
80-80
50%
79-80
47%
76-87
48%
76-83
ATS
58%
93-67
58%
93-66
48%
79-84
49%
78-81
TTL
46%
72-83-5
55%
80-66-13
47%
74-83-6
51%
74-72-13
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