DETROIT
TIGERSDET
31-16 | Road
4
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
26-21 | Home
11
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Keider Montero
#54 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Gordon Graceffo
#44 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keider Montero | None-None | 5.28 | -- | 5.2 | 3 |
| Gordon Graceffo | None-None | 5.93 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.28 Ldr
ERA
5.93
--
WHIP
--
5.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
61%
CARDINALS
39%
TIGERS
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around DET -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
DET By 1-2 runs
18.6%
DET By 3-4 runs
13.9%
STL By 1-2 runs
18.2%
STL By 3-4 runs
13.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
6.2
DETROIT
St. Louis
6.08
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
Detroit
6
DETROIT
St. Louis
4
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tigers
Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Sim
Tigers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tigers (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.1
C
Sim
Tigers (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 12.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 5, 2026
STL @ DET
5 - 3
Apr 4, 2026
STL @ DET
6 - 11
Apr 3, 2026
STL @ DET
0 - 4
May 21, 2025
DET @ STL
5 - 1
May 20, 2025
DET @ STL
5 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit
DET
vs
St. Louis
STL
162
Games Played
162
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.241
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.320
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.720
▲
OPS
.691
181
▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+67.0% more
Detroit: 0.7
vs
St. Louis: 0.0
Walks (L5)
+44.7% more
Detroit: 3.4
vs
St. Louis: 1.9
Strikeouts (L5)
+40.4% more
Detroit: 9.8
vs
St. Louis: 5.9
Home Runs (L5)
+24.1% more
Detroit: 1.1
vs
St. Louis: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
6.2
4
STL Score
6.1
11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.0 / 0.7
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.4 / 9.2
16.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.1
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
5.9 / 9.8
12.0 / 3.0
Total Bases
12.5 / 14.7
24.0 / 11.0
Walks
1.9 / 3.4
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
DET
STL
DET
ML
53%
85-74
54%
86-73
52%
84-77
54%
87-73
ATS
56%
89-70
64%
101-58
53%
85-76
57%
91-69
TTL
46%
68-81-10
46%
69-81-9
50%
76-75-10
46%
69-81-10
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