Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ Red Sox NYM @ BOS

NEW YORK

METSNYM

29-19  |  Road

0
FINAL
Tue, May 20 • 6:45 PM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

24-25  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Brett Baty
STARTING PITCHER

Brett Baty

#7 | Third Base
@
Aroldis Chapman
STARTING PITCHER

Aroldis Chapman

#44 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Brett Baty None-None -- -- -- --
Aroldis Chapman None-None 1.89 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 1.89
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
METS
61%
📊
RED SOX
39%
METS --
RED SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Boston)
MetsNYM (-3.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

48.4%

Red Sox Cover

51.6%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

NYM By 1-2 runs

18.1%

NYM By 3-4 runs

13.1%

BOS By 1-2 runs

18.7%

BOS By 3-4 runs

14.0%

AI Model Projected Score
4.7
NEW YORK
4.86
BOSTON
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Red Sox Win
39% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Sox Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Red Sox (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.2
B
Sim Red Sox (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.6
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 12, 2026 BOS @ NYM 3 - 2
Jul 11, 2026 BOS @ NYM 4 - 0
Jul 10, 2026 BOS @ NYM 6 - 2
May 21, 2025 NYM @ BOS 5 - 1
May 20, 2025 NYM @ BOS 0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
Boston BOS
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.31 ▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.239 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.310 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.395 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.705 ▲
OPS
.409
204 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5) +82.6% more
Boston: 14.9 vs New York: 8.2
Home Runs (L5) +77.0% more
Boston: 1.0 vs New York: 0.2
Hits (L5) +38.2% more
Boston: 8.6 vs New York: 6.2
Strikeouts (L5) +14.5% more
Boston: 7.6 vs New York: 6.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 4.7 0
BOS Score 4.9 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 1.0 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.6 / 6.2 5.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 0.2 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.6 / 6.6 7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 14.9 / 8.2 11.0 / 5.0
Walks 4.3 / 5.1 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
NYM
BOS
NYM
ML
50% 80-80
50% 79-80
47% 76-87
48% 76-83
ATS
58% 93-67
58% 93-66
48% 79-84
49% 78-81
TTL
46% 72-83-5
55% 80-66-13
47% 74-83-6
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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