Home / MLB Projections MLB / Padres @ Blue Jays SD @ TOR

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

27-18  |  Road

0
FINAL
Tue, May 20 • 7:07 PM ET
Rogers Centre
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

22-24  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Wandy Peralta
STARTING PITCHER

Wandy Peralta

#58 | Relief Pitcher
@
Brendon Little
STARTING PITCHER

Brendon Little

#54 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Wandy Peralta None-None 5.30 -- 1.0 1
Brendon Little None-None 1.61 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
5.30 ERA Ldr 1.61
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
62%
📊
BLUE JAYS
38%
PADRES --
BLUE JAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Toronto)
PadresSD (-3.5) 0 Blue JaysTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

47.2%

Blue Jays Cover

52.8%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

SD By 1-2 runs

17.9%

SD By 3-4 runs

12.7%

TOR By 1-2 runs

18.9%

TOR By 3-4 runs

14.4%

AI Model Projected Score
4.67
SAN DIEGO
4.95
TORONTO
Simulated Score
3
SAN DIEGO
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Blue Jays Win
38% Win Prob
D
Sim Blue Jays Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Blue Jays (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.3
B
Sim Blue Jays (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.6
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 12, 2026 TOR @ SD 4 - 5
Jul 11, 2026 TOR @ SD 7 - 8
Jul 10, 2026 TOR @ SD 5 - 3
May 22, 2025 SD @ TOR 6 - 7
May 21, 2025 SD @ TOR 0 - 14
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
Toronto TOR
2
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.925 ▲
OPS
.692
4
Home Runs
▲ 152
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +3700.0% more
Toronto: 152.0 vs San Diego: 4.0
Runs per Game (Season) +33.3% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Toronto: 4.0
Errors (L5) +27.0% more
San Diego: 0.4 vs Toronto: 0.2
Walks (L5) +26.7% more
San Diego: 3.6 vs Toronto: 2.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 4.7 0
TOR Score 5.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.5 / 7.8 3.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 0.9 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.8 / 10.6 8.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 11.8 / 11.7 9.0 / 6.0
Walks 2.6 / 3.6 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
SD
TOR
SD
ML
46% 74-87
51% 85-83
50% 80-80
51% 85-82
ATS
56% 90-71
54% 91-77
49% 79-81
55% 92-75
TTL
51% 80-76-5
51% 82-80-6
45% 70-85-5
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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