DETROIT
TIGERSDET
31-17 | Road
5
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
27-21 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Holton
#87 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Leahy
#62 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Holton | None-None | 3.86 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Kyle Leahy | None-None | 1.29 | -- | 1.1 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.86
ERA
Ldr 1.29
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.1
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
59%
CARDINALS
41%
TIGERS
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
DET By 1-2 runs
15.7%
DET By 3-4 runs
9.9%
STL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
STL By 3-4 runs
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
5.76
DETROIT
St. Louis
7.01
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
Detroit
3
DETROIT
St. Louis
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals
Loss
41% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cardinals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.3
A
Sim
Cardinals (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 12.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 5, 2026
STL @ DET
5 - 3
Apr 4, 2026
STL @ DET
6 - 11
Apr 3, 2026
STL @ DET
0 - 4
May 21, 2025
DET @ STL
5 - 1
May 20, 2025
DET @ STL
5 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit
DET
vs
St. Louis
STL
162
Games Played
162
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.241
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.320
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.720
▲
OPS
.691
181
▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+25.1% more
St. Louis: 11.0
vs
Detroit: 8.8
Total Bases (L5)
+21.2% more
St. Louis: 16.3
vs
Detroit: 13.5
Home Runs (L5)
+15.0% more
St. Louis: 0.9
vs
Detroit: 0.8
Errors (L5)
+45.0% more
Detroit: 0.8
vs
St. Louis: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
5.8
5
STL Score
7.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.8
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
11.0 / 8.8
8.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 0.8
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.9 / 7.6
5.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
16.3 / 13.5
12.0 / 15.0
Walks
1.9 / 2.9
0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
DET
STL
DET
ML
53%
85-74
54%
86-73
52%
84-77
54%
87-73
ATS
56%
89-70
64%
101-58
53%
85-76
57%
91-69
TTL
46%
68-81-10
46%
69-81-9
50%
76-75-10
46%
69-81-10
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