NEW YORK
METSNYM
29-20 | Road
5
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
25-25 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brett Baty
#7 | Third Base@
STARTING PITCHER
Ceddanne Rafaela
#3 | Center Field| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Baty | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
METS
59%
RED SOX
41%
METS
--
RED SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
53%
Under 0
47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
NYM By 1-2 runs
19.2%
NYM By 3-4 runs
15.0%
BOS By 1-2 runs
17.4%
BOS By 3-4 runs
12.0%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
4.59
NEW YORK
Boston
4.07
BOSTON
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Boston
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mets
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Sox
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mets (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
D
Sim
Red Sox (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 12, 2026
BOS @ NYM
3 - 2
Jul 11, 2026
BOS @ NYM
4 - 0
Jul 10, 2026
BOS @ NYM
6 - 2
May 21, 2025
NYM @ BOS
5 - 1
May 20, 2025
NYM @ BOS
0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
Boston
BOS
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.31
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.239
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.310
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.395
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.705
▲
OPS
.409
204
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+99.0% more
New York: 204.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+76.8% more
New York: 4.3
vs
Boston: 1.0
Errors (L5)
+30.0% more
New York: 0.7
vs
Boston: 0.4
OPS (Season)
+29.6%
New York: 70.5%
vs
Boston: 40.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
4.6
5
BOS Score
4.1
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.4 / 5.5
6.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 0.1
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.4 / 6.8
7.0 / 16.0
Total Bases
13.6 / 7.1
7.0 / 15.0
Walks
3.8 / 4.4
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
NYM
BOS
NYM
ML
50%
80-80
50%
79-80
47%
76-87
48%
76-83
ATS
58%
93-67
58%
93-66
48%
79-84
49%
78-81
TTL
46%
72-83-5
55%
80-66-13
47%
74-83-6
51%
74-72-13
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