Home / MLB Projections MLB / Padres @ Blue Jays SD @ TOR

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

27-19  |  Road

0
FINAL
Wed, May 21 • 7:07 PM ET
Rogers Centre
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

23-24  |  Home

14
Probable Pitchers
Adrian Morejon
STARTING PITCHER

Adrian Morejon

#50 | Relief Pitcher
@
Nathan Lukes
STARTING PITCHER

Nathan Lukes

#38 | Right Field
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Adrian Morejon None-None 3.66 -- 0.1 --
Nathan Lukes None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
3.66 ERA --
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
60%
📊
BLUE JAYS
40%
PADRES --
BLUE JAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 47%
Under 0 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Toronto)
PadresSD (-3.5) 0 Blue JaysTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

37.5%

Blue Jays Cover

62.5%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

SD By 1-2 runs

15.6%

SD By 3-4 runs

9.8%

TOR By 1-2 runs

19.7%

TOR By 3-4 runs

17.0%

AI Model Projected Score
4.17
SAN DIEGO
5.44
TORONTO
Simulated Score
3
SAN DIEGO
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Blue Jays Win
40% Win Prob
D
Sim Blue Jays Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Blue Jays (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.3
D
Sim Blue Jays (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.6
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 12, 2026 TOR @ SD 4 - 5
Jul 11, 2026 TOR @ SD 7 - 8
Jul 10, 2026 TOR @ SD 5 - 3
May 22, 2025 SD @ TOR 6 - 7
May 21, 2025 SD @ TOR 0 - 14
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
Toronto TOR
2
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.925 ▲
OPS
.692
4
Home Runs
▲ 152
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +3700.0% more
Toronto: 152.0 vs San Diego: 4.0
Home Runs (L5) +71.0% more
Toronto: 1.3 vs San Diego: 0.6
Total Bases (L5) +10.8% more
Toronto: 10.9 vs San Diego: 9.8
Runs per Game (Season) +33.3% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Toronto: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 4.2 0
TOR Score 5.4 14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.3 1.0 / 4.0
Hits 6.0 / 6.9 14.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 0.6 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.9 / 9.4 10.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 10.9 / 9.8 23.0 / 9.0
Walks 2.1 / 3.1 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
SD
TOR
SD
ML
46% 74-87
51% 85-83
50% 80-80
51% 85-82
ATS
56% 90-71
54% 91-77
49% 79-81
55% 92-75
TTL
51% 80-76-5
51% 82-80-6
45% 70-85-5
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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