Home / MLB Projections MLB / Padres @ Blue Jays SD @ TOR

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

27-20  |  Road

6
FINAL
Thu, May 22 • 1:07 PM ET
Rogers Centre
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

24-24  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Jeremiah Estrada
STARTING PITCHER

Jeremiah Estrada

#56 | RP
@
Braydon Fisher
STARTING PITCHER

Braydon Fisher

#63 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jeremiah Estrada None-None 2.86 -- 0.1 --
Braydon Fisher None-None 0.00 -- 0.1 --
None-None W-L None-None
2.86 ERA Ldr 0.00
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) 0.1
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
57%
📊
BLUE JAYS
43%
PADRES --
BLUE JAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.7
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.6 points (Toronto)
PadresSD (-3.5) 0 Blue JaysTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

25.4%

Blue Jays Cover

74.6%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -2.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

SD By 1-2 runs

11.7%

SD By 3-4 runs

6.2%

TOR By 1-2 runs

19.0%

TOR By 3-4 runs

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3.82
SAN DIEGO
6.47
TORONTO
Simulated Score
3
SAN DIEGO
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Blue Jays Win
43% Win Prob
D
Sim Blue Jays Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Blue Jays (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.7
B
Sim Blue Jays (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.3
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 12, 2026 TOR @ SD 4 - 5
Jul 11, 2026 TOR @ SD 7 - 8
Jul 10, 2026 TOR @ SD 5 - 3
May 22, 2025 SD @ TOR 6 - 7
May 21, 2025 SD @ TOR 0 - 14
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
Toronto TOR
2
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.925 ▲
OPS
.692
4
Home Runs
▲ 152
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +3700.0% more
Toronto: 152.0 vs San Diego: 4.0
Home Runs (L5) +113.0% more
Toronto: 1.5 vs San Diego: 0.4
Total Bases (L5) +56.3% more
Toronto: 14.9 vs San Diego: 9.5
Hits (L5) +38.9% more
Toronto: 8.7 vs San Diego: 6.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 3.8 6
TOR Score 6.5 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 1.5 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.7 / 6.2 12.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 0.4 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.6 / 8.6 11.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 14.9 / 9.5 15.0 / 15.0
Walks 1.4 / 3.1 4.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
SD
TOR
SD
ML
46% 74-87
51% 85-83
50% 80-80
51% 85-82
ATS
56% 90-71
54% 91-77
49% 79-81
55% 92-75
TTL
51% 80-76-5
51% 82-80-6
45% 70-85-5
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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