SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
27-21 | Road
2
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
24-25 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Adrian Morejon
#50 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Raisel Iglesias
#26 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Morejon | None-None | 3.38 | -- | 1.2 | 3 |
| Raisel Iglesias | None-None | 5.75 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.38 Ldr
ERA
5.75
--
WHIP
--
1.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
57%
BRAVES
43%
PADRES
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
47%
Under 0
53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
SD By 1-2 runs
19.6%
SD By 3-4 runs
16.2%
ATL By 1-2 runs
16.4%
ATL By 3-4 runs
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
5.17
SAN DIEGO
Atlanta
4.2
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
San Diego
3
SAN DIEGO
Atlanta
5
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Padres
Win
57% Win Prob
D
Sim
Braves
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Padres (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Braves (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 23, 2026
SD @ ATL
5 - 6
Jul 22, 2026
SD @ ATL
6 - 7
Jul 21, 2026
SD @ ATL
8 - 3
Jul 20, 2026
SD @ ATL
2 - 3
Jun 24, 2026
ATL @ SD
2 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Atlanta
ATL
2
▲
Games Played
1
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
5.00
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.324
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.433
.925
▲
OPS
.757
4
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+66.7% more
San Diego: 1.4
vs
Atlanta: 0.5
Strikeouts (L5)
+28.2% more
San Diego: 8.1
vs
Atlanta: 5.8
Walks (L5)
+24.1% more
San Diego: 4.4
vs
Atlanta: 3.3
OPS (Season)
+16.8%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Atlanta: 75.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
5.2
2
ATL Score
4.2
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 1.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.2 / 6.8
6.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 0.9
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
5.8 / 8.1
8.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
16.4 / 11.4
9.0 / 13.0
Walks
3.3 / 4.4
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
SD
ATL
SD
ML
46%
77-90
51%
85-83
54%
90-78
51%
85-82
ATS
57%
96-71
54%
91-77
52%
87-81
55%
92-75
TTL
53%
83-73-11
51%
82-80-6
49%
76-80-11
54%
86-74-6
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