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PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

33-18  |  Road

9
FINAL
Sat, May 24 • 10:05 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
View Odds Details →

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

22-30  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Orion Kerkering
STARTING PITCHER

Orion Kerkering

#50 | Relief Pitcher
@
Hogan Harris
STARTING PITCHER

Hogan Harris

#36 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Orion Kerkering None-None 3.72 -- 1.0 --
Hogan Harris None-None 3.68 -- 0.1 --
None-None W-L None-None
3.72 ERA Ldr 3.68
-- WHIP --
1.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.1
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
0%
📊
ATHLETICS
100%
PHILLIES --
ATHLETICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.4
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 points (Philadelphia)
PhilliesPHI (-3.5) 0 AthleticsATH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Phillies Cover

72.3%

Athletics Cover

27.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI -2.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

PHI By 1-2 runs

19.3%

PHI By 3-4 runs

19.0%

ATH By 1-2 runs

12.5%

ATH By 3-4 runs

6.9%

AI Model Projected Score
6.03
PHILADELPHIA
3.66
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
4
PHILADELPHIA
2
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Phillies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Phillies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Phillies (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.4
D
Sim Phillies (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.7
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 7, 2026 ATH @ PHI 12 - 1
May 6, 2026 ATH @ PHI 3 - 6
May 5, 2026 ATH @ PHI 1 - 9
May 25, 2025 PHI @ ATH 4 - 5
May 24, 2025 PHI @ ATH 9 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia PHI
vs
Athletics ATH
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.438 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.724 ▲
OPS
.719
3
Home Runs
▲ 194
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +8.4% more
Philadelphia: 10.3 vs Athletics: 9.4
Slugging Pct (Season) +3.6%
Philadelphia: 43.8% vs Athletics: 40.2%
OPS (Season) +0.5%
Philadelphia: 72.4% vs Athletics: 71.9%
Batting Avg (Season) +0.2%
Philadelphia: 24.7% vs Athletics: 24.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 6.0 9
ATH Score 3.7 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.2 1.0 / 2.0
Hits 8.7 / 9.1 15.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 1.1 1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 9.4 / 10.3 12.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 14.0 / 14.5 21.0 / 21.0
Walks 2.5 / 2.7 6.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
80%MONEY20%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
80%MONEY20%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI Advantage
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
ATH Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
PHI
ATH
PHI
ML
59% 95-67
59% 97-67
54% 87-74
49% 80-84
ATS
52% 84-78
65% 107-57
50% 81-80
51% 83-81
TTL
54% 84-73-5
57% 88-67-9
42% 66-90-5
51% 78-76-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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