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PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

32-18  |  Road

4
FINAL
Fri, May 23 • 10:05 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
View Odds Details →

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

22-29  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Orion Kerkering
STARTING PITCHER

Orion Kerkering

#50 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jacob Lopez
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob Lopez

#57 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Orion Kerkering None-None 3.93 -- 0.1 1
Jacob Lopez None-None 2.57 -- 7.0 8
None-None W-L None-None
3.93 ERA Ldr 2.57
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 7.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 8
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
0%
📊
ATHLETICS
100%
PHILLIES --
ATHLETICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.9
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.9 points (Philadelphia)
PhilliesPHI (-3.5) 0 AthleticsATH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Phillies Cover

83.3%

Athletics Cover

16.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI -3.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

PHI By 1-2 runs

16.6%

PHI By 3-4 runs

19.7%

ATH By 1-2 runs

8.2%

ATH By 3-4 runs

3.8%

AI Model Projected Score
6.96
PHILADELPHIA
3.1
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
5
PHILADELPHIA
3
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Phillies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Phillies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Phillies (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -3.9
D
Sim Phillies (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.1
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 7, 2026 ATH @ PHI 12 - 1
May 6, 2026 ATH @ PHI 3 - 6
May 5, 2026 ATH @ PHI 1 - 9
May 25, 2025 PHI @ ATH 4 - 5
May 24, 2025 PHI @ ATH 9 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia PHI
vs
Athletics ATH
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.438 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.724 ▲
OPS
.719
3
Home Runs
▲ 194
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +23.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.3 vs Athletics: 0.0
Slugging Pct (Season) +3.6%
Philadelphia: 43.8% vs Athletics: 40.2%
OPS (Season) +0.5%
Philadelphia: 72.4% vs Athletics: 71.9%
Batting Avg (Season) +0.2%
Philadelphia: 24.7% vs Athletics: 24.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 7.0 4
ATH Score 3.1 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.0 / 0.3 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.5 / 9.6 7.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 1.2 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.1 / 9.0 10.0 / 13.0
Total Bases 15.1 / 15.7 12.0 / 12.0
Walks 3.3 / 2.6 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
90%TICKETS10%
90%MONEY10%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
95%MONEY5%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI Advantage
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
ATH Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
PHI
ATH
PHI
ML
59% 95-67
59% 97-67
54% 87-74
49% 80-84
ATS
52% 84-78
65% 107-57
50% 81-80
51% 83-81
TTL
54% 84-73-5
57% 88-67-9
42% 66-90-5
51% 78-76-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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