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BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

15-31  |  Road

2
FINAL
Tue, May 20 • 7:40 PM ET
American Family Field
View Odds Details →

MILWAUKEE

BREWERSMIL

23-25  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Gunnar Henderson
STARTING PITCHER

Gunnar Henderson

#2 | Shortstop
@
Abner Uribe
STARTING PITCHER

Abner Uribe

#45 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Gunnar Henderson None-None -- -- -- --
Abner Uribe None-None 1.19 -- 1.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 1.19
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 3
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
100%
📊
BREWERS
0%
ORIOLES --
BREWERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Milwaukee)
OriolesBAL (-3.5) 0 BrewersMIL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Orioles Cover

48.0%

Brewers Cover

52.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIL -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)

BAL By 1-2 runs

18.1%

BAL By 3-4 runs

13.0%

MIL By 1-2 runs

18.7%

MIL By 3-4 runs

14.1%

AI Model Projected Score
2.87
BALTIMORE
3.07
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
3
BALTIMORE
5
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Brewers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Brewers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Brewers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.2
D
Sim Brewers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 5.9
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 MIL @ BAL 3 - 0
Sep 19, 2026 MIL @ BAL 1 - 0
Sep 18, 2026 MIL @ BAL 6 - 5
May 21, 2025 BAL @ MIL 8 - 4
May 20, 2025 BAL @ MIL 2 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore BAL
vs
Milwaukee MIL
161
Games Played
▲ 162
4.46
Runs / Game
▲ 5.14
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .341
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .403
.711
OPS
▲ .743
199 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +15.2% more
Milwaukee: 5.1 vs Baltimore: 4.5
Errors (L5) +12.0% more
Milwaukee: 0.6 vs Baltimore: 0.5
OPS (Season) +3.2%
Milwaukee: 74.3% vs Baltimore: 71.1%
On-Base Pct (Season) +2.7%
Milwaukee: 34.1% vs Baltimore: 31.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAL Score 2.9 2
MIL Score 3.1 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.5 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 7.3 / 8.1 7.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 0.2 / 1.6 3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.6 / 9.0 13.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 10.3 / 14.9 17.0 / 10.0
Walks 2.8 / 3.2 2.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
12%MONEY88%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
MIL Advantage
106-60-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
MIL
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
BAL
MIL
BAL
ML
62% 101-61
53% 83-73
52% 84-78
57% 90-69
ATS
58% 94-68
61% 95-60-1
48% 78-84
57% 90-68-1
TTL
40% 62-92-8
54% 81-70-5
50% 77-77-8
51% 78-75-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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