FLORIDA
PANTHERSFLA
0-0-0 | Road
6
TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
0-0-0 | Home
1
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
0%
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
PANTHERS
--
MAPLE LEAFS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Florida)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around FLA -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FLA)
FLA By 1 goal
19.7%
FLA By 2-3 goals
28.0%
TOR By 1 goal
13.0%
TOR By 2-3 goals
10.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Florida
3.5
FLORIDA
Toronto
2.65
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Florida
2
FLORIDA
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Panthers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Maple Leafs
Loss
50% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Panthers (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.9
D
Sim
Maple Leafs (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 11, 2026
FLA @ TOR
6 - 2
Feb 26, 2026
TOR @ FLA
1 - 5
Jan 6, 2026
FLA @ TOR
1 - 4
Dec 2, 2025
TOR @ FLA
4 - 1
May 18, 2025
FLA @ TOR
6 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+21.8% more
Florida: 52.0
vs
Toronto: 40.7
Takeaways (L5)
+17.6% more
Florida: 5.4
vs
Toronto: 4.4
Shots on Goal (L5)
+16.9% more
Florida: 29.0
vs
Toronto: 24.1
Power Play % (L5)
+5.8%
Florida: 14.6%
vs
Toronto: 8.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
FLA Score
3.5
6
TOR Score
2.7
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
24.7 / 10.9
31.0 / 19.0
Faceoff %
57.5 / 43.0
50.8 / 49.2
Hits
40.7 / 52.0
47.0 / 48.0
Power Play %
883.0 / 1460.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
24.1 / 29.0
20.0 / 34.0
Takeaways
4.4 / 5.4
3.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
FLA
TOR
FLA
ML
50%
2-2
0%
0-4
50%
2-2
0%
0-4
ATS
0%
0-4
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
TTL
100%
4-0
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
0%
0-4
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