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TORONTO

MAPLE LEAFSTOR

0-0-0  |  Road

2
FINAL
Fri, May 16 • 8:00 PM ET
Amerant Bank Arena
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA

PANTHERSFLA

0-0-0  |  Home

0
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
📊
PANTHERS
0%
MAPLE LEAFS --
PANTHERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Florida)
Maple LeafsTOR (-3.5) 0 PanthersFLA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Maple Leafs Cover

41.3%

Panthers Cover

58.7%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around FLA -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FLA)

TOR By 1 goal

15.3%

TOR By 2-3 goals

14.2%

FLA By 1 goal

19.0%

FLA By 2-3 goals

23.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.27
TORONTO
3.71
FLORIDA
Simulated Score
2
TORONTO
4
FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Panthers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Panthers Loss
50% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Panthers (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -0.4
D
Sim Panthers (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 11, 2026 FLA @ TOR 6 - 2
Feb 26, 2026 TOR @ FLA 1 - 5
Jan 6, 2026 FLA @ TOR 1 - 4
Dec 2, 2025 TOR @ FLA 4 - 1
May 18, 2025 FLA @ TOR 6 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +52.8% more
Florida: 5.5 vs Toronto: 3.6
Shots on Goal (L5) +17.4% more
Florida: 32.6 vs Toronto: 27.7
Hits (L5) +12.6% more
Florida: 49.0 vs Toronto: 43.5
Power Play % (L5) +8.7%
Florida: 21.9% vs Toronto: 13.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 3.3 2
FLA Score 3.7 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 11.3 / 21.6 10.0 / 31.0
Faceoff % 45.2 / 55.6 38.6 / 61.4
Hits 49.0 / 43.5 58.0 / 35.0
Power Play % 2190.0 / 1324.0 0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 32.6 / 27.7 22.0 / 17.0
Takeaways 5.5 / 3.6 5.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
54%MONEY46%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
90%MONEY10%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FLA
TOR
FLA
TOR
ML
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
TTL
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
0% 0-4
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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