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ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

22-22  |  Road

1
FINAL
Fri, May 16 • 10:15 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

25-19  |  Home

9
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Nick Kurtz

#16 | First Base
@
Camilo Doval
STARTING PITCHER

Camilo Doval

#57 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Nick Kurtz None-None -- -- -- --
Camilo Doval None-None 1.31 -- 1.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 1.31
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 3
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
100%
📊
GIANTS
0%
ATHLETICS --
GIANTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.9
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 points (San Francisco)
AthleticsATH (-3.5) 0 GiantsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Athletics Cover

31.3%

Giants Cover

68.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SF -1.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

ATH By 1-2 runs

13.7%

ATH By 3-4 runs

8.0%

SF By 1-2 runs

19.6%

SF By 3-4 runs

18.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3.48
ATHLETICS
5.43
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
3
ATHLETICS
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Giants Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Giants Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Giants (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.9
D
Sim Giants (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.9
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 25, 2026 ATH @ SF 9 - 6
Jun 24, 2026 ATH @ SF 1 - 2
Jun 23, 2026 ATH @ SF 1 - 3
May 17, 2026 SF @ ATH 10 - 1
May 16, 2026 SF @ ATH 6 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics ATH
vs
San Francisco SF
162
Games Played
162
4.31 ▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.245
Avg (AVG)
.245
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.719 ▲
OPS
.706
194 ▲
Home Runs
178
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +30.5% more
San Francisco: 9.9 vs Athletics: 7.6
Strikeouts (L5) +14.8% more
San Francisco: 8.1 vs Athletics: 7.0
Total Bases (L5) +8.7% more
San Francisco: 15.6 vs Athletics: 14.3
Walks (L5) +33.7% more
Athletics: 5.6 vs San Francisco: 3.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATH Score 3.5 1
SF Score 5.4 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.9 / 7.6 13.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 1.7 3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.1 / 7.0 7.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 15.6 / 14.3 25.0 / 6.0
Walks 3.7 / 5.6 2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
SF Advantage
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
SF Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
ATH
SF
ATH
ML
49% 79-81
59% 95-67
53% 85-75
54% 87-74
ATS
62% 100-60
52% 84-78
52% 83-77
50% 81-80
TTL
55% 82-68-10
54% 84-73-5
46% 68-81-11
42% 66-90-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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