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TORONTO

MAPLE LEAFSTOR

0-0-0  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sun, May 11 • 7:30 PM ET
Amerant Bank Arena
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA

PANTHERSFLA

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2
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
📊
PANTHERS
100%
MAPLE LEAFS --
PANTHERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Toronto)
Maple LeafsTOR (-3.5) 0 PanthersFLA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Maple Leafs Cover

52.8%

Panthers Cover

47.2%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around TOR -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

TOR By 1 goal

18.0%

TOR By 2-3 goals

20.2%

FLA By 1 goal

16.8%

FLA By 2-3 goals

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.81
TORONTO
3.67
FLORIDA
Simulated Score
3
TORONTO
4
FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Maple Leafs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Panthers Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Maple Leafs (-0) Loss
Proj Goals: -0.1
D
Sim Panthers (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.5
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 11, 2026 FLA @ TOR 6 - 2
Feb 26, 2026 TOR @ FLA 1 - 5
Jan 6, 2026 FLA @ TOR 1 - 4
Dec 2, 2025 TOR @ FLA 4 - 1
May 18, 2025 FLA @ TOR 6 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +40.7% more
Toronto: 21.5 vs Florida: 12.7
Faceoff % (L5) +13.6%
Toronto: 57.7% vs Florida: 44.0%
Power Play % (L5) +7.6%
Toronto: 29.8% vs Florida: 22.2%
Hits (L5) +32.1% more
Florida: 49.7 vs Toronto: 37.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 3.8 0
FLA Score 3.7 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 12.7 / 21.5 12.0 / 18.0
Faceoff % 44.0 / 57.7 36.5 / 63.5
Hits 49.7 / 37.6 40.0 / 47.0
Power Play % 22.2 / 29.8 16.7 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 30.7 / 26.9 37.0 / 23.0
Takeaways 4.7 / 3.7 8.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
57%MONEY43%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
81%MONEY19%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FLA
TOR
FLA
TOR
ML
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
TTL
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
0% 0-4
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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