Home / MLB Projections MLB / Padres @ Rockies SD @ COL

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

25-13  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sun, May 11 • 3:10 PM ET
Coors Field
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

6-33  |  Home

9
Probable Pitchers
German Marquez
STARTING PITCHER

German Marquez

#33 | Starting Pitcher
@
Mickey Moniak
STARTING PITCHER

Mickey Moniak

#22 | Left Field
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
German Marquez None-None 8.27 -- 7.0 2
Mickey Moniak None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
8.27 ERA --
-- WHIP --
7.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
2 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
0%
📊
ROCKIES
100%
PADRES --
ROCKIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.3
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.3 points (San Diego)
PadresSD (-3.5) 0 RockiesCOL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

85.8%

Rockies Cover

14.2%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD -4.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

SD By 1-2 runs

15.6%

SD By 3-4 runs

19.4%

COL By 1-2 runs

7.1%

COL By 3-4 runs

3.1%

AI Model Projected Score
5.99
SAN DIEGO
1.7
COLORADO
Simulated Score
3
SAN DIEGO
6
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Padres Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rockies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Padres (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -4.3
D
Sim Rockies (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.7
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 17, 2026 SD @ COL 9 - 2
Sep 16, 2026 SD @ COL 9 - 3
Sep 15, 2026 SD @ COL 3 - 9
Sep 14, 2026 SD @ COL 8 - 7
Jul 29, 2026 COL @ SD 1 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
Colorado COL
2
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.64
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.254
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.322
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.417
.925 ▲
OPS
.739
4
Home Runs
▲ 180
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +57.2% more
San Diego: 2.2 vs Colorado: 0.9
Total Bases (L5) +45.9% more
San Diego: 25.0 vs Colorado: 13.6
Hits (L5) +45.0% more
San Diego: 14.9 vs Colorado: 8.2
Runs per Game (Season) +22.7% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Colorado: 4.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 6.0 3
COL Score 1.7 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.6 / 0.8 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.2 / 14.9 12.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 2.2 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 6.5 / 7.1 4.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 13.6 / 25.0 23.0 / 5.0
Walks 3.9 / 2.8 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
95%TICKETS5%
94%MONEY6%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
95%TICKETS5%
97%MONEY3%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
SD
COL
SD
ML
60% 97-64
51% 85-83
55% 88-73
51% 85-82
ATS
60% 97-64
54% 91-77
52% 83-78
55% 92-75
TTL
60% 93-62-6
51% 82-80-6
50% 77-78-6
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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