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BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

14-24  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sun, May 11 • 4:07 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

16-22  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Yennier Cano
STARTING PITCHER

Yennier Cano

#78 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jorge Soler
STARTING PITCHER

Jorge Soler

#12 | Designated Hitter
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Yennier Cano None-None 2.70 -- 1.0 2
Jorge Soler None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
2.70 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
2 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
100%
📊
ANGELS
0%
ORIOLES --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
0.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
OriolesBAL (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Orioles Cover

49.8%

Angels Cover

50.2%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAA 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

BAL By 1-2 runs

18.4%

BAL By 3-4 runs

13.5%

LAA By 1-2 runs

18.5%

LAA By 3-4 runs

13.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2.7
BALTIMORE
2.72
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
4
BALTIMORE
6
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Angels Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Angels Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Angels (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: 0.0
D
Sim Angels (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 5.4
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 6, 2026 LAA @ BAL 4 - 1
Aug 5, 2026 LAA @ BAL 2 - 5
Aug 4, 2026 LAA @ BAL 1 - 3
Jun 24, 2026 BAL @ LAA 6 - 7
Jun 23, 2026 BAL @ LAA 1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore BAL
vs
Los Angeles LAA
161
Games Played
▲ 162
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
4.04
.234
Avg (AVG)
.234
.314 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.396 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.711 ▲
OPS
.679
199 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +36.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.6 vs Baltimore: 0.2
Home Runs (L5) +19.0% more
Los Angeles: 1.1 vs Baltimore: 0.9
Walks (L5) +9.9% more
Los Angeles: 3.9 vs Baltimore: 3.5
Home Runs (Season) +22.6% more
Baltimore: 199.0 vs Los Angeles: 154.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAL Score 2.7 7
LAA Score 2.7 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.2 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.9 / 7.8 6.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 0.9 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.6 / 8.0 9.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 12.0 / 12.5 11.0 / 15.0
Walks 3.9 / 3.5 5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
73%MONEY27%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
67%MONEY33%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL Advantage
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
BAL
LAA
BAL
ML
59% 96-66
53% 83-73
55% 89-73
57% 90-69
ATS
60% 97-65
61% 95-60-1
51% 82-80
57% 90-68-1
TTL
53% 83-74-5
54% 81-70-5
52% 82-75-5
51% 78-75-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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