Home / MLB Projections MLB / Padres @ Rockies SD @ COL

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

24-13  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sat, May 10 • 8:10 PM ET
Coors Field
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

6-32  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Gavin Sheets
STARTING PITCHER

Gavin Sheets

#30 | First Base
@
Juan Mejia
STARTING PITCHER

Juan Mejia

#47 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Gavin Sheets None-None -- -- -- --
Juan Mejia None-None 4.70 -- 1.1 --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 4.70
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.1
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
0%
📊
ROCKIES
100%
PADRES --
ROCKIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (San Diego)
PadresSD (-3.5) 0 RockiesCOL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

71.1%

Rockies Cover

28.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

SD By 1-2 runs

19.4%

SD By 3-4 runs

18.8%

COL By 1-2 runs

12.9%

COL By 3-4 runs

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4.57
SAN DIEGO
2.35
COLORADO
Simulated Score
3
SAN DIEGO
7
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Padres Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rockies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Padres (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.2
D
Sim Rockies (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.9
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 17, 2026 SD @ COL 9 - 2
Sep 16, 2026 SD @ COL 9 - 3
Sep 15, 2026 SD @ COL 3 - 9
Sep 14, 2026 SD @ COL 8 - 7
Jul 29, 2026 COL @ SD 1 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
Colorado COL
2
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.64
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.254
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.322
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.417
.925 ▲
OPS
.739
4
Home Runs
▲ 180
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +22.7% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Colorado: 4.6
OPS (Season) +18.6%
San Diego: 92.5% vs Colorado: 73.9%
Slugging Pct (Season) +14.6%
San Diego: 56.3% vs Colorado: 41.7%
Batting Avg (Season) +7.4%
San Diego: 32.8% vs Colorado: 25.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 4.6 21
COL Score 2.4 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.9 / 1.2 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.8 / 10.4 5.0 / 24.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 0.7 0.0 / 5.0
Strikeouts 7.8 / 7.1 4.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 17.3 / 15.1 6.0 / 45.0
Walks 3.3 / 3.2 5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
95%TICKETS5%
96%MONEY4%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
98%MONEY2%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
39%MONEY61%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
SD
COL
SD
ML
60% 97-64
51% 85-83
55% 88-73
51% 85-82
ATS
60% 97-64
54% 91-77
52% 83-78
55% 92-75
TTL
60% 93-62-6
51% 82-80-6
50% 77-78-6
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
yahoo 0 minutes ago
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
si 0 minutes ago
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
yahoo 0 minutes ago
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
hawaiitribune_herald 12 hours, 1 minute ago
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …
newsweek 17 hours, 42 minutes ago