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BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

14-23  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sat, May 10 • 9:38 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

15-22  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler O'Neill

#9 | Right Field
@
Jose Fermin
STARTING PITCHER

Jose Fermin

#65 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tyler O'Neill None-None -- -- -- --
Jose Fermin None-None 7.50 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 7.50
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
0%
📊
ANGELS
100%
ORIOLES --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
0.0
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
OriolesBAL (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Orioles Cover

50.1%

Angels Cover

49.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BAL 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)

BAL By 1-2 runs

18.4%

BAL By 3-4 runs

13.6%

LAA By 1-2 runs

18.4%

LAA By 3-4 runs

13.5%

AI Model Projected Score
2.85
BALTIMORE
2.84
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
3
BALTIMORE
6
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Orioles Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Angels Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Orioles (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: 0.0
D
Sim Angels (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 5.7
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 6, 2026 LAA @ BAL 4 - 1
Aug 5, 2026 LAA @ BAL 2 - 5
Aug 4, 2026 LAA @ BAL 1 - 3
Jun 24, 2026 BAL @ LAA 6 - 7
Jun 23, 2026 BAL @ LAA 1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore BAL
vs
Los Angeles LAA
161
Games Played
▲ 162
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
4.04
.234
Avg (AVG)
.234
.314 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.396 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.711 ▲
OPS
.679
199 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +22.6% more
Baltimore: 199.0 vs Los Angeles: 154.0
Hits (L5) +20.8% more
Baltimore: 8.7 vs Los Angeles: 6.9
Total Bases (L5) +12.9% more
Baltimore: 13.7 vs Los Angeles: 12.0
Runs per Game (Season) +9.4% more
Baltimore: 4.5 vs Los Angeles: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAL Score 2.9 2
LAA Score 2.8 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.3 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.9 / 8.7 7.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 0.9 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.4 / 8.0 7.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 12.0 / 13.7 12.0 / 10.0
Walks 3.8 / 2.3 4.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
71%MONEY29%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
76%MONEY24%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL Advantage
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
BAL
LAA
BAL
ML
59% 96-66
53% 83-73
55% 89-73
57% 90-69
ATS
60% 97-65
61% 95-60-1
51% 82-80
57% 90-68-1
TTL
53% 83-74-5
54% 81-70-5
52% 82-75-5
51% 78-75-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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