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TORONTO

MAPLE LEAFSTOR

0-0-0  |  Road

4
FINAL
Fri, May 9 • 7:00 PM ET
Amerant Bank Arena
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA

PANTHERSFLA

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5
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
📊
PANTHERS
100%
MAPLE LEAFS --
PANTHERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Toronto)
Maple LeafsTOR (-3.5) 0 PanthersFLA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Maple Leafs Cover

55.4%

Panthers Cover

44.6%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around TOR -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

TOR By 1 goal

18.5%

TOR By 2-3 goals

21.6%

FLA By 1 goal

16.2%

FLA By 2-3 goals

15.8%

AI Model Projected Score
3.82
TORONTO
3.55
FLORIDA
Simulated Score
3
TORONTO
4
FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Maple Leafs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Panthers Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Maple Leafs (-0) Loss
Proj Goals: -0.3
D
Sim Panthers (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.4
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 11, 2026 FLA @ TOR 6 - 2
Feb 26, 2026 TOR @ FLA 1 - 5
Jan 6, 2026 FLA @ TOR 1 - 4
Dec 2, 2025 TOR @ FLA 4 - 1
May 18, 2025 FLA @ TOR 6 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +45.6% more
Toronto: 22.3 vs Florida: 12.1
Faceoff % (L5) +16.8%
Toronto: 59.7% vs Florida: 42.9%
Takeaways (L5) +36.4% more
Florida: 4.1 vs Toronto: 3.0
Hits (L5) +24.6% more
Florida: 43.5 vs Toronto: 34.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 3.8 4
FLA Score 3.6 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 12.1 / 22.3 14.0 / 20.0
Faceoff % 42.9 / 59.7 46.3 / 53.7
Hits 43.5 / 34.9 62.0 / 43.0
Power Play % 33.3 / 32.2 0.0 / 25.0
Shots on Goal 28.1 / 24.8 36.0 / 31.0
Takeaways 4.1 / 3.0 6.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
84%MONEY16%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FLA
TOR
FLA
TOR
ML
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
TTL
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
0% 0-4
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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