SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
23-13 | Road
13
COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
6-31 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Wandy Peralta
#58 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Zach Agnos
#36 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wandy Peralta | None-None | 5.65 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
| Zach Agnos | None-None | 0.87 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.65
ERA
Ldr 0.87
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
0%
ROCKIES
100%
PADRES
--
ROCKIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.7
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.7 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD -2.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
SD By 1-2 runs
18.9%
SD By 3-4 runs
19.3%
COL By 1-2 runs
11.6%
COL By 3-4 runs
6.1%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
4.44
SAN DIEGO
Colorado
1.76
COLORADO
Simulated Score
San Diego
3
SAN DIEGO
Colorado
6
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Padres
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Padres (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.7
D
Sim
Rockies (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 17, 2026
SD @ COL
9 - 2
Sep 16, 2026
SD @ COL
9 - 3
Sep 15, 2026
SD @ COL
3 - 9
Sep 14, 2026
SD @ COL
8 - 7
Jul 29, 2026
COL @ SD
1 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Colorado
COL
2
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.64
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.254
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.322
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.417
.925
▲
OPS
.739
4
Home Runs
▲
180
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+22.7% more
San Diego: 3.9
vs
Colorado: 3.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+22.7% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Colorado: 4.6
OPS (Season)
+18.6%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Colorado: 73.9%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+14.6%
San Diego: 56.3%
vs
Colorado: 41.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
4.4
13
COL Score
1.8
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.3 / 0.8
3.0 / 2.0
Hits
7.3 / 7.6
15.0 / 16.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 0.6
3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.2 / 7.7
7.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
12.0 / 10.6
28.0 / 24.0
Walks
3.0 / 3.9
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
SD
COL
SD
ML
60%
97-64
51%
85-83
55%
88-73
51%
85-82
ATS
60%
97-64
54%
91-77
52%
83-78
55%
92-75
TTL
60%
93-62-6
51%
82-80-6
50%
77-78-6
54%
86-74-6
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