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BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

13-23  |  Road

4
FINAL
Fri, May 9 • 9:38 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

15-21  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Yennier Cano
STARTING PITCHER

Yennier Cano

#78 | Relief Pitcher
@
Reid Detmers
STARTING PITCHER

Reid Detmers

#48 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Yennier Cano None-None 2.92 -- 0.1 1
Reid Detmers None-None 9.39 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
2.92 Ldr ERA 9.39
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
0%
📊
ANGELS
100%
ORIOLES --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Baltimore)
OriolesBAL (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Orioles Cover

52.7%

Angels Cover

47.3%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BAL -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)

BAL By 1-2 runs

18.8%

BAL By 3-4 runs

14.3%

LAA By 1-2 runs

17.9%

LAA By 3-4 runs

12.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2.91
BALTIMORE
2.64
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
3
BALTIMORE
6
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Orioles Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Angels Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Orioles (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.3
D
Sim Angels (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 5.6
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 6, 2026 LAA @ BAL 4 - 1
Aug 5, 2026 LAA @ BAL 2 - 5
Aug 4, 2026 LAA @ BAL 1 - 3
Jun 24, 2026 BAL @ LAA 6 - 7
Jun 23, 2026 BAL @ LAA 1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore BAL
vs
Los Angeles LAA
161
Games Played
▲ 162
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
4.04
.234
Avg (AVG)
.234
.314 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.396 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.711 ▲
OPS
.679
199 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +22.6% more
Baltimore: 199.0 vs Los Angeles: 154.0
Runs per Game (Season) +9.4% more
Baltimore: 4.5 vs Los Angeles: 4.0
OPS (Season) +3.2%
Baltimore: 71.1% vs Los Angeles: 67.9%
Slugging Pct (Season) +2.7%
Baltimore: 39.6% vs Los Angeles: 36.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAL Score 2.9 4
LAA Score 2.6 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.3 / 8.5 4.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.7 / 0.8 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.1 / 8.0 10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 14.4 / 13.1 7.0 / 15.0
Walks 3.7 / 3.0 4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
74%MONEY26%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL Advantage
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
BAL
LAA
BAL
ML
59% 96-66
53% 83-73
55% 89-73
57% 90-69
ATS
60% 97-65
61% 95-60-1
51% 82-80
57% 90-68-1
TTL
53% 83-74-5
54% 81-70-5
52% 82-75-5
51% 78-75-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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