FLORIDA
PANTHERSFLA
0-0-0 | Road
3
TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
0-0-0 | Home
4
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
0%
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
PANTHERS
--
MAPLE LEAFS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Florida)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around FLA -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FLA)
FLA By 1 goal
19.2%
FLA By 2-3 goals
24.6%
TOR By 1 goal
14.8%
TOR By 2-3 goals
13.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Florida
3.91
FLORIDA
Toronto
3.37
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Florida
3
FLORIDA
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Panthers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Maple Leafs
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Panthers (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.5
D
Sim
Maple Leafs (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 11, 2026
FLA @ TOR
6 - 2
Feb 26, 2026
TOR @ FLA
1 - 5
Jan 6, 2026
FLA @ TOR
1 - 4
Dec 2, 2025
TOR @ FLA
4 - 1
May 18, 2025
FLA @ TOR
6 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+30.4% more
Florida: 45.8
vs
Toronto: 31.9
Blocked Shots (L5)
+47.3% more
Toronto: 20.9
vs
Florida: 14.2
Faceoff % (L5)
+12.4%
Toronto: 58.1%
vs
Florida: 45.7%
Power Play % (L5)
+6.7%
Toronto: 31.6%
vs
Florida: 24.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
FLA Score
3.9
3
TOR Score
3.4
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
20.9 / 14.2
25.0 / 8.0
Faceoff %
58.1 / 45.7
62.7 / 37.3
Hits
31.9 / 45.8
41.0 / 39.0
Power Play %
31.6 / 24.9
33.3 / 50.0
Shots on Goal
27.2 / 28.2
20.0 / 28.0
Takeaways
4.0 / 4.1
1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
FLA
TOR
FLA
ML
50%
2-2
0%
0-4
50%
2-2
0%
0-4
ATS
0%
0-4
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
TTL
100%
4-0
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
0%
0-4
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