Home / MLB Projections MLB / Giants @ Cubs SF @ CHC

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

23-14  |  Road

3
FINAL
Wed, May 7 • 2:20 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

22-15  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Camilo Doval
STARTING PITCHER

Camilo Doval

#57 | Relief Pitcher
@
Gavin Hollowell
STARTING PITCHER

Gavin Hollowell

#46 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Camilo Doval None-None 1.53 -- 1.0 2
Gavin Hollowell None-None 0.00 -- 0.2 --
None-None W-L None-None
1.53 ERA Ldr 0.00
-- WHIP --
1.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.2
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
0%
📊
CUBS
100%
GIANTS --
CUBS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (San Francisco)
GiantsSF (-3.5) 0 CubsCHC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

55.1%

Cubs Cover

44.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SF -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

SF By 1-2 runs

19.2%

SF By 3-4 runs

15.0%

CHC By 1-2 runs

17.4%

CHC By 3-4 runs

12.1%

AI Model Projected Score
5.15
SAN FRANCISCO
4.64
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
4
SAN FRANCISCO
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Giants Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cubs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Giants (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
D
Sim Cubs (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.8
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 14, 2026 CHC @ SF 1 - 5
Jun 13, 2026 CHC @ SF 6 - 1
Jun 12, 2026 CHC @ SF 5 - 1
Jun 7, 2026 SF @ CHC 2 - 1
Jun 6, 2026 SF @ CHC 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco SF
vs
Chicago CHC
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.13 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.306 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.706 ▲
OPS
.374
178 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +100.0% more
San Francisco: 178.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +87.9% more
San Francisco: 4.1 vs Chicago: 0.5
Errors (L5) +55.6% more
San Francisco: 1.7 vs Chicago: 0.8
OPS (Season) +33.2%
San Francisco: 70.6% vs Chicago: 37.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 5.2 3
CHC Score 4.6 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 1.7 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.3 / 10.7 4.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 1.3 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.6 / 8.7 11.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 13.7 / 16.3 7.0 / 11.0
Walks 2.5 / 3.7 5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
13%MONEY87%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
SF
CHC
SF
ML
58% 93-68
49% 79-81
51% 82-79
53% 85-75
ATS
61% 97-63-1
62% 100-60
47% 75-85-1
52% 83-77
TTL
52% 81-74-6
55% 82-68-10
46% 72-83-6
46% 68-81-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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