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SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

22-14  |  Road

14
FINAL
Tue, May 6 • 7:40 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

22-14  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Camilo Doval
STARTING PITCHER

Camilo Doval

#57 | Relief Pitcher
@
Caleb Thielbar
STARTING PITCHER

Caleb Thielbar

#24 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Camilo Doval None-None 1.62 -- 1.0 1
Caleb Thielbar None-None 3.29 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
1.62 Ldr ERA 3.29
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
100%
📊
CUBS
0%
GIANTS --
CUBS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Chicago)
GiantsSF (-3.5) 0 CubsCHC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

38.5%

Cubs Cover

61.5%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

SF By 1-2 runs

15.9%

SF By 3-4 runs

10.1%

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.7%

CHC By 3-4 runs

16.7%

AI Model Projected Score
4.2
SAN FRANCISCO
5.37
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
5
SAN FRANCISCO
4
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cubs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Giants Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cubs (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.2
D
Sim Giants (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.6
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 14, 2026 CHC @ SF 1 - 5
Jun 13, 2026 CHC @ SF 6 - 1
Jun 12, 2026 CHC @ SF 5 - 1
Jun 7, 2026 SF @ CHC 2 - 1
Jun 6, 2026 SF @ CHC 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco SF
vs
Chicago CHC
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.13 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.306 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.706 ▲
OPS
.374
178 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +32.8% more
Chicago: 1.8 vs San Francisco: 1.4
Total Bases (L5) +11.9% more
Chicago: 15.0 vs San Francisco: 13.4
Strikeouts (L5) +11.1% more
Chicago: 7.9 vs San Francisco: 7.1
Home Runs (Season) +100.0% more
San Francisco: 178.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 4.2 14
CHC Score 5.4 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 2.0 2.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.4 / 8.1 8.0 / 16.0
Home Runs 1.8 / 1.4 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.9 / 7.1 7.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 15.0 / 13.4 11.0 / 22.0
Walks 1.7 / 2.5 4.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
16%MONEY84%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
SF
CHC
SF
ML
58% 93-68
49% 79-81
51% 82-79
53% 85-75
ATS
61% 97-63-1
62% 100-60
47% 75-85-1
52% 83-77
TTL
52% 81-74-6
55% 82-68-10
46% 72-83-6
46% 68-81-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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