FLORIDA
PANTHERSFLA
0-0-0 | Road
4
TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
0-0-0 | Home
5
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
0%
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
PANTHERS
--
MAPLE LEAFS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Florida)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around FLA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FLA)
FLA By 1 goal
19.7%
FLA By 2-3 goals
29.9%
TOR By 1 goal
11.9%
TOR By 2-3 goals
9.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Florida
3.93
FLORIDA
Toronto
2.9
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Florida
3
FLORIDA
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Panthers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Maple Leafs
Win
50% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Panthers (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Maple Leafs (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 11, 2026
FLA @ TOR
6 - 2
Feb 26, 2026
TOR @ FLA
1 - 5
Jan 6, 2026
FLA @ TOR
1 - 4
Dec 2, 2025
TOR @ FLA
4 - 1
May 18, 2025
FLA @ TOR
6 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+17.0% more
Florida: 43.1
vs
Toronto: 35.8
Power Play % (L5)
+26.8%
Toronto: 47.5%
vs
Florida: 20.7%
Blocked Shots (L5)
+22.6% more
Toronto: 19.3
vs
Florida: 15.8
Faceoff % (L5)
+8.7%
Toronto: 57.2%
vs
Florida: 48.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
FLA Score
3.9
4
TOR Score
2.9
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
19.3 / 15.8
24.0 / 11.0
Faceoff %
57.2 / 48.5
60.0 / 40.0
Hits
35.8 / 43.1
24.0 / 51.0
Power Play %
47.5 / 20.7
0.0 / 33.3
Shots on Goal
25.8 / 27.8
30.0 / 29.0
Takeaways
4.4 / 4.1
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
FLA
TOR
FLA
ML
50%
2-2
0%
0-4
50%
2-2
0%
0-4
ATS
0%
0-4
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
TTL
100%
4-0
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
0%
0-4
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