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TORONTO

MAPLE LEAFSTOR

0-0-0  |  Road

4
FINAL
Thu, May 1 • 7:00 PM ET
Canadian Tire Centre
View Odds Details →

OTTAWA

SENATORSOTT

0-0-0  |  Home

2
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
📊
SENATORS
100%
MAPLE LEAFS --
SENATORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
0.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Maple LeafsTOR (-3.5) 0 SenatorsOTT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Maple Leafs Cover

51.0%

Senators Cover

49.0%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around TOR 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

TOR By 1 goal

17.7%

TOR By 2-3 goals

19.2%

OTT By 1 goal

17.2%

OTT By 2-3 goals

18.1%

AI Model Projected Score
3.71
TORONTO
3.66
OTTAWA
Simulated Score
4
TORONTO
3
OTTAWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Maple Leafs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Maple Leafs Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Maple Leafs (-0) Win
Proj Goals: 0.0
D
Sim Maple Leafs (-0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.4
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 OTT @ TOR 3 - 2
Apr 15, 2026 TOR @ OTT 1 - 3
Mar 21, 2026 TOR @ OTT 2 - 5
Feb 28, 2026 OTT @ TOR 5 - 2
Dec 27, 2025 OTT @ TOR 5 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +25.1% more
Toronto: 21.0 vs Ottawa: 15.7
Shots on Goal (L5) +15.0% more
Toronto: 27.2 vs Ottawa: 23.1
Faceoff % (L5) +10.3%
Toronto: 55.8% vs Ottawa: 45.4%
Hits (L5) +11.4% more
Ottawa: 35.9 vs Toronto: 32.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 3.7 4
OTT Score 3.7 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 15.7 / 21.0 11.0 / 16.0
Faceoff % 45.4 / 55.8 40.0 / 60.0
Hits 35.9 / 32.2 56.0 / 43.0
Power Play % 22.6 / 21.2 0.0 / 100.0
Shots on Goal 23.1 / 27.2 23.0 / 23.0
Takeaways 4.4 / 4.7 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
78%MONEY22%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
57%MONEY43%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OTT
TOR
OTT
TOR
ML
0% 0-3
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
ATS
0% 0-3
0% 0-4
67% 2-1
75% 3-1
TTL
67% 2-1
100% 4-0
67% 2-1
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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