MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
1-3 | Road
118
INDIANA
PACERSIND
3-1 | Home
119
AI Model Win Probability
BUCKS
100%
PACERS
0%
BUCKS
--
PACERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
239.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.8
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.8 points (Indiana)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IND -5.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)
MIL By 1-7 points
17.3%
MIL By 8-14 points
7.1%
IND By 1-7 points
27.0%
IND By 8-14 points
24.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
116.64
MILWAUKEE
Indiana
122.4
INDIANA
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
118
MILWAUKEE
Indiana
109
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pacers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bucks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pacers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.8
D
Sim
Bucks (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 239.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 15, 2026
IND @ MIL
123 - 134
Feb 6, 2026
IND @ MIL
99 - 105
Dec 23, 2025
MIL @ IND
111 - 94
Nov 3, 2025
MIL @ IND
117 - 115
Apr 29, 2025
MIL @ IND
118 - 119
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+68.6% more
Indiana: 6.0
vs
Milwaukee: 3.5
Assists (L5)
+23.7% more
Indiana: 31.7
vs
Milwaukee: 25.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.0%
Indiana: 83.3%
vs
Milwaukee: 77.3%
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.4%
Indiana: 50.8%
vs
Milwaukee: 46.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
116.6
118
IND Score
122.4
119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.1 / 38.7
36.4 / 47.5
Assists
31.7 / 25.6
24.0 / 25.0
Blocks
6.0 / 3.5
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
50.8 / 46.4
46.2 / 45.6
Free Throw %
83.3 / 77.3
75.0 / 65.4
Rebounding
42.4 / 40.3
45.0 / 53.0
Steals
6.5 / 6.1
10.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
11.6 / 11.6
13.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
Advantage
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
IND
Advantage
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
MIL
IND
MIL
ML
48%
47-50
64%
61-35
54%
45-38
60%
49-32
ATS
59%
57-40
68%
65-31
54%
45-38
60%
49-32
TTL
54%
52-45
55%
53-43
100%
83-0
100%
81-0
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